Against the trend

Hi Everybody,

I know this is more of an “advanced post”, but berceuse I get asked this questions a lot, I thought I would post it here. The question i, how to manage a trade “if” you are “against” or you feel “unsure” of the larger degree trend.

Well, as I teach, when you are either “against” or you feel “unsure” of the larger degree trend then you should be more aggressive with managing your trade. For example using the 100% initial risk guideline. This is good as it gets your stop to “break-even” quicker so you are protected, while still allowing a little “wiggle room” for the trade to go your way.

A good example was this DP sell on the 3mion Dax from this morning. The larger degree trend was not clear, so moving the stop to break-even as soon as the short reached the 100% initial risk level was a good idea. This level was not hit and the short (in this example) went onto reach the first target where +4.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available. Yes banking profit earlier is also a good idea when the larger degree tend is unsure

Thanks, and I hope this helps ?

Steve

Big Profits from Standard setups as well

Hi Everybody,

Although Advanced Analysis can give you Big Profits’ please don’t assume that you “have” to perform Advanced Analysis to get the big Profits. Here is a great example of a Big +7.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) that has just unfolded on the 3min FTSE this morning.

This was a completely Standard setup, with the TS3 buy falling in line with the blue STF. Trade management was standard also, with Profits being taking at the first WPT Profit target as the STF was weak (less than its strength band).

So here we have a completely standard trade setup that made a big +7.6R Profit.

MTPredictor, doing its job for Standard and Advanced Traders alike !

Thanks, Steve

Advanced Analysis – what to inspire to

Hi Everybody,

I am not going to do a “standard” post today, mainly because the “Advanced” setups yesterday on the US e-minis were so brilliant. With a massive +18R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) on the 3min Russell.

Trades like this are the main reason I designed MTPredictor in the first place. These are the kind of trades I would look for many many years again in my own trading before I had MTPredictor. So I hope you can all make the step to Advanced Trader because this is where the Big Profits come, and I do so want all of you to do well and as such become successful and very Profitable traders,. This is why I spend so much time with all this Education.

The next step is up to you. In MTPredictor you have all the tools you need, and as you can see from this Russell Index trade, +18R Profits do unfold, you just have to be ready to take them.

So please all take a look at today's posts on the Advanced Blog http://elliott-wave-trader.blogspot.com/

Thanks, Steve

A hard day

Hi Everybody,

It was a hard day for the Standard Traders among you. As you can see, there were a number of losing trades on the 3min YM that were “with” the STF trend. But still, even at -2R ( 2 losses) this was still small when compared to the recent Profits we have had. Remember, losses will always happen when trading, the trick is keeping them small.

But, this is where the Advanced Traders among you had an advantage yesterday, as you were able to look at the “larger degree trend” using the 15min Charts, please see the Advanced Blog post....

Thanks, Steve

3min ES, Part 2

Here is the same setup, but this time using the tools that are in the MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader 7.

As you can see, the ABC low was automatically found using the new Elliott Wave module in Ninja 7. Then we use the DP (from the last high) for the “initial target”, and place the Risk/Reward analysis on the chart. And there you go, the same setup as we had in MTP v6.5......

As a PS, if you go down to the 2min chart, then it was found as a TS3 buy automatically on both MTP v6,5 and in Ninja 7.

Thanks Steve

PS, turn to the Advanced Blog for more Advanced Analysis

3min ES

Hi Everybody,

The example today shows how in MTPredictor v6.5, we show signals where the “entry bar” can unfold up to 5 bars “after” the turn (high or low). We do not do this in the MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader. So, yes, this is one of the few (less than 5%) of the times when you can get a different signal in MTP v6.5 when compared to the RT add-ons. It could have been found in the RT add-ons, and I will show you how in the next post.

But for now, this was a small Profit or +2.3R (ignoring slippage and commission) as the ES rallied into the first projected Profit target.

Thanks

Steve

History Signals Part 2

As we have seen in the post below, we had a History Triangle on the 3min FTSE at 05:03EST, but the question is whether the history triangle that you see on the chart represents a -1R loss ?

Well, as always, I said to put the Analysis on the setups and then see where the Stop levels fall. In this example you can see that although the FTSE did rally back “up to” the stop level, it did not breach it, therefore only making a “double top”. In other words, the short trade was not stopped out. So no -1R loss.

In fact the TS3 short went on to make a nice +4.4R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), as the FTSE continued its decline.

So the bottom line is that even when you see a History Triangle, you should always place the Analysis on the chart, only then can you see how the trade actually unfolded.

Thanks, Steve

History Signals

Hi Everybody,

This is a question I get asked a lot, and it is whether the “history triangles” all just represent a -1R loss ?

Well, no, I suggest that you all take a look at this help video:
http://www.mtpredictor.com/help/videos/65-history2/65-history2.html

This applies the same whether you are using MTPredictor v6.5 or the new RT add-ons for NinjaTrader 7

Let’s take a look at this FTSE example in the next post

Thanks, Steve

What a brilliant day !

Hi Everybody,

What a brilliant day yesterday, and a perfect example of why you all need to understand the Cyclical Nature of Trading. After a few harder days (where we had a number of losses but the profits were large to made us small profits overall), along comes some brilliant setups yesterday.

Today I would like to look at the 3min NQ, using the new MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader7, starting with the perfect TS3 sell around mid morning. As you can see, the NQ declined to the first projected profit target nicely, where +4.3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

What a brilliant trade, but the day did not stop there, so skip over to the Advanced Blog, where things then get really amazing !

Thanks, Steve

A perfect trade !

Hi Everybody,

Although the US e-minis have been having a slightly tricky time over the last few days, the European Traders among you have been having a ball. Just look at this TS1 short trade from just this morning. This nailed a high just before the Dax collapsed !

As the STF was strong as the first profit target was reached, the trade management swapped to the ATRStop. This held the short trade as the Dax continued to decline, the end result was a massive +11R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Absolutely amazing !!

Steve

PS, this was found using the new MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader 7

Position sizing – again !

Hi Everybody.

I hope you all carefully read yesterdays post, so first I have to ask – what did you all learn ?

I hope it was that it is the “size” of your Profits” that is important, and “not” the number. We had a Guy call in yesterday who simply could not understand that you don’t have to have a high number of winners to be profitable overall. So it was good that yesterday we had another good example, again on the 3min YM.

Here we had two losing short trades (-1R each), but it was then followed by a +4.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) on the TS4 buy later in the day. Meaning only 33% winners (1 out of 3) BUT (and this is the important point), because the Profit was much larger than the losses, money was made overall.................

I still find it amazing (and sad at the same time) that so many amateurs simply cannot understand that being successful in this business in NOT about a high % if winners. Having a high % of winners over time is hard, but it is not necessary to be successful

Thanks, and I do really hope that people start to understand this, Steve

Position Sizing – how amazing !

Hi Everybody,

For the Standard Traders among you, yesterday on the 3min YM was a brilliant example of why using Correct Position Sizing is so important. Here we had 4 automatic trades, of which 3 were loses. Yes, 3 losses and only 1 Profit. On the face of it, this looks horrible, but that is where most amateur traders makes their biggest mistake. They do not realize that using correct Position Sizing means that their losses are kept small and their Profits are large. So in this example we had 3 x -1R BUT (and this is the important point) the 1 Profit was +4R, meaning that money was made overall (+4R -3R = +1R Profit overall).

This is the point that so many amateur traders never seen to understand, it is not the number (or %) of winners to losses that is important, it is their size !

Thanks, Steve

PS, But take a look at the Advanced Blog, that is where yesterday became a brilliant day !

Cyclical Nature of Trading.

Hi Everybody,

Well, we have had a good run of profitable trades recently, so it was about time that we should have a few losses come though. This is just the Natural Cyclical Nature of Trading. And yesterday was a hard day on the US e-minis. Hard days do unfold when trading, any Guru who does not tell you this is lying, or not a trader themselves.

This is where it was good to be an Advanced Trader, where an appreciation of the "larger degree trend" would have helped, please see the Advanced posts.

Thanks, Steve

Another good day......

Hi Everybody,

Friday was a another good day for the US e-minis, with a nice TS2 sell early in the day on the 3min ES. The ES declined nicely to reach the first projected profit target, where Profit was taken, as the STF was weak. This resulted in a nice +3.5R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

AS the STF was read at the time of the sell, this was a nice straightforward trade at all MTPredictor users should have nailed.

The TS4 buy later in the day was “against” a red STF so should have been avoided.

I just wish that all days were as straight forward was this !

Thanks, Steve

3min ES Part 2

Here is a chart of the second TS4 sell that I talked about in the post before. As you can see, a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Thanks, Steve

3min ES

Hi Everybody,

After a few quiet days, we came back to a good day on the US e-minis yesterday. This is just the “Cyclical Nature of Trading”, that you all should know very well by now !

So let’s take a look at the 3min ES, which started with a sell early in the day, but this was “not valid” as it was against a blue STF (up trend). Then the ES decline into a TS4 buy, that was valid............. The ES then rallied into a TS3 Sell which was also valid (Black STF), this was a case for a “stop and reverse”, banking a small +0.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) along the way.

Then we have two “history triangles”, but only one -1R loss (as they were a “double top”). Sp here you were +0.9r up and -1R down, so very pretty much break-even, when a nice TS4 sell came in. This nailed the high before the markets started a sharp decline.

The result of this last sell was a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), making the day a good one overall..............

Thanks, Steve

The true power of MTPredictor

Hi Everybody,

As the US markets were quiet again yesterday, I would just like to show you a trade I was following yesterday on the 3min DAX. This shows you the true power of MTPredictor and what the tools in the software are capable of.............. When I see markets unfolding like this, I am still truly amazed !

Here we had a perfect High Volume (VSA) spike at DP support, that nailed the low perfectly. Then the Dax rallied into the higher DP, but look at how thew rally unfolded, a perfect minor 5 wavers, with the high right at the Typical Wave 5 WPT ! When markets unfold like this, it amazes me and show hwo good the tools in MTPredictor really are !

The result, a lovely +6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

This is what MTPredictor can do, and is why I spend so much time trying to get you all to make the transition to an Advanced Trader, as there is so so much more that MTPredictor can offer you......................

Thanks, Steve

A quiet day

Hi Everybody,

Standard traders on the US e-minis had a quiet day yesterday. As you can see from the 3min ES chart there was very little action yesterday.

As you all know, this is just part of the “Cyclical Nature of Trading”, where we get quiet times as well as losing trades as well as the good time, when the profits arrive. This is just the natural way market unfold. So it is something all professional traders accept and learn to deal with

Thanks, Steve

However, there was a nice “gap open” play for the Advanced Traders among you

Political uncertainty leads to MTP Profits

Hi Everybody,

Here is a great reason why I don’t take any notice of the news. Here in the UK, here is great political uncertainty with talks of collations. But, while all this uncertainty goes on MTP nailed a perfect TS3 sell on the 3min FTSE.

With the decline into the first projected profit target, MTP users had a lovely +5.5R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).....

So while the “City” is uncertain about what may happen in Government, MTPredictor users are quietly amassing yet more profits – lovely !

Thanks, Steve

Why you need to follow more than 1 market

OK, now let’s move onto the 3min YM, where we started with the same -1R losses early in the day. Yes, losses can and do happen, it is just important that they are kept small at just -1R.

But then we got a DP buy early afternoon, that made +0.9R Profit, then (and this is the one I would like to look at), the TS3 sell at 15:00EST reached the minor DP support (from the minor wave b low). And you should know from reading the Trading Course, that this is the first “minor” support zone following a Wave C high or low. So (as we were expecting a hard day), a further +2.1R Profit was available here.

So, as you can see, this would have made the YM Profitable overall, whereas the ES was not. This is why you must follow more than just 1 e-mini as you will get differ trades as the patterns on each e-minis will be different throughout the day.

Thanks, Steve

Why you need to follow more than 1 market

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was a great example of why it is important to followed all the 4 US e-minis, because you can get additional information on one of the other markets as well as additional trades. Let’s take a look at an example

If you look at the 3min ES on the face of it, it was not a good day, with a -1R loss, which was followed by two break-even trades. But overall, it would have been a hard day..............

But, let’s take a look at the 3min YM in the next post

Thanks, Steve

PS. Then in the Advanced Blog, we will see how the Advanced Trader could have considered that lovely TS1 sell, even though it was “against” the STF colour

European Traders having a Ball !

Hi Everybody,

Nice to see that the European Traders among you are having a great time................. As you can see, a lovely TS 3 buy has just unfolded on the 3min Dax. The result was a nice +6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) as the Dax rallied into the first Profit target !

This was a perfect trade and everything was standard, so it should have been caught by all the European Traders out there..............

The screen shot uses the new MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader 7

Thanks, Steve

Opposing signals ?

Hi Everybody,

A question I get a lot is how to handle an “opposing signals”. For example, you were short from the TS3 sell in the 3min YM, then a valid TS3 buy came up, what do you do ? Well, this is where an idea of the “larger degree trend” comes in. Normally I would suggest that the signal that is “with” the larger degree trend has preference. But, for those of you who have been following this Blog for a while, will know that the “day after” a big move can be choppy, with narrow ranges, so can just drift sideways, just like Friday !

So in day like this, “Stop and Reverse” at valid opposing signals is OK, but just be careful and keep stops close, as a horrible choppy day was expected.....

Thanks, Steve

Political uncertainty vs Trading Profits

Hi Everybody,

As we struggle to come to terms with the chaos that is unfolding in the UK here today with the election results not giving a clear winner, the FTSE has been giving MTPredictor users some nice profits.

As you can see, the TS3 buy that has just unfolded on the 3min FTSE rallied straight to the first projected profit target, where a +4.3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

So even when the Political landscape is uncertain in the UK, MTPredictor users are amassing yet more profits....

Thanks, Steve

Follow all markets

Hi Everybody,

I have said it before, you should follow all 4 US e-minis. This is because you can get a setup on one of them and not the others. A great example is yesterday, where the best trade unfolded on the 3min Russell Index (TF). As you can see, we got a lovely TS3 sell just before the sharp fall yesterday.

Yes, Standard Traders would have come out at the first target, as the STF was weak, but this still banked a very nice +4.2R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission). As I have been saying over the3 last few days, this profit is much larger than the losses (at -1R) and this is what makes a successful trader...

Thanks, Steve

PS, I know you are all looking to catch the whole fall that unfolded yesterday, so let’s take a look in the Advanced Blog.

The Cyclical Nature of Trading.

Hi Everybody,

My discussion of keeping the losses small over the last few days has been very timely because yesterday we had a hard day on the US e-minis. However, this should have been expected after the run of good trade recently, this is what I call the “Cyclical Nature of Trading”.

If we look at the 3min YM, we had a -1R loss early in the day, but it is the second sell (TS3) at 10:48EST that I want to take a closer look at. This is where common sense come it, and this is something that comes with experience, something that a purely “mechanical” trading system will never have and is why I am so against mechanical systems, because they can never have the “intuition” of a good Human Trader.

So here you are, on just over +2R Profit and you know that you have had a good run of good trades over the last few days, so you know you are “overdue” for some losses. So the “sensible” thing to do is protect this trade quicker so it is at least break-even. This is common sense trading.

The result is that the losses would been have kept to a minimum yesterday. And remember this comes only a day after a nice +5R day on the ES the day before...................... Small losses and Big Profits – are you starting to see how this is the key to a successful long term treading approach :)

Thanks, Steve

Small losses and Big Profits

Hi Everybody.

I hope you all read, and then took on board my post yesterday on why most amateur traders lose ? Well, yesterday carried on nicely, where we had 3 short trades on the 3min ES, 1 loss and 2 winners. But that is not important, what was important was that the Profits were much much larger than the losses. So even if tomorrow we have a few losses, these Big Profits will more than make up for a few losses. And this is the key to successful trading, small losses and Big Profits.

Yesterday the STF on the 3min ES was red, so Standard Traders would have avoided the buys and only taken the sell. The result was two good profitable trades and 1 loss. Please see the Chart. So a good day overall yesterday.

Thanks, Steve

Why most traders lose

Hi Everybody,

It is said that up to 97% of amateur traders fail in this business, so why is that ? Well, after over 20 years in this business, the reason is simple (as I see it all the time). It is because amateurs want to be “right” more than they want to make money.

In other words, most amateurs just look for a high winning % of trades and have no understanding that this is not possible over time. And (this is the bit they never get) is that to make money over time you actually don’t need to have a high % of winners. The attached chart on the 3min ES form Friday is a great example, 2 winners and two loses, but good Profit “overall”.

I see this again and again, day after day, and I feel sad that most amateurs simply are unwilling to listen to experience and “think” they know better. So it is a sad fact that 97% of amateurs will just go on losing, because they are unwilling to listen and accept that the key to successful trading is keeping the losses small and Profits larger and NOT simply having a high % of winners......

This is where MTPredictor will help as it provides discipline to keep the losses small, and techniques to maximise the winners...... The rest (as they say) is now up to you.

Thanks, Steve