+13R Profit in the 3min FTSE

Hi Everybody,

Just because the US e-minis are having a quiet time does not mean that all markets are the same.

Here is a massive +13R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) on the 3min FTSE that was posted by Tony on the Forum.

Steve

Daily S&P Update

Hi Everybody

Looks like we are still in the DP zone, so the S&P has not finished making its "decision" on whether it is going to reverse or push higher....

But this reminds me a lot of late 2002, when the markets were rallying off the lows. It is all too easy to get a bit too excited and want to pick the next high, because you don’t want to miss out on the next big fall.

BUT, and this is a big but, because the fall has recently happened the "probabilities" are that a recovery will now unfold rather than another big fall.

Precter and many other big EW Gurus fell into this same trap last time and were continually calling for a top as the S&P rallied for the next few years.

So yes, trade your own system, but just be aware that a major low may have been made in March and as such the markets may now be in a new major up trend...............

Steve

YM – TS3 buy on VSA spike

Here is a good example of how you don’t need to “predict the future” to make money. This TS3 buy was “against” the larger degree trend “at the time” so the Advanced Traders among you should have used the 100% initial risk guideline to protect the trade quicker......

But what I liked about this setup was the nice symmetrical ABC pattern (much better looking than the ES one)going into the TS3 buy as well as the high volume (VSA) spike at the low. This made this a good one for the Advanced Traders among you to consider.....

The projected profit target then nailed the very high of the day for you ! for a nice +2.3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

You have to remember that we are in the hard part of the cycle at the moment, it will not be long before we come back to the part when we get some easier trades and bigger profits.

Thanks, Steve

ES – 15min Chart

Here is the 15min ES chart “at the time”, as you can see it did look “at the time” that the ES had turned down off DP resistance and as such the 15mion trend had now turned down. Therefore the 3min TS3 sell “at the time” was in the direction of this larger degree trend.

Again, most Amateurs simply do not understand that any analysis cannot be right all the time. Successful trading is about dealing with probabilities and keeping losses small when the trade does not work out as anticipated. Successful trading trading is not about trying to predict the future, it is about Risk control, and keeping the losses small and Profits large.

I still find it amazing the way so many amateur traders simply cannot understand this basic principle of successful trading.......... I guess that is why 97% of Amateurs fail...

Thanks, Steve

ES – TS3 sell, a -1R loss

Hi Everybody,

Again, unlike most Gurus and software developers, I look at the hard times as well as the losses. A good example was the TS3 sell around Lunch time on the 3min ES.

As you can see, this would have resulted in a -1R loss. Yes it was valid as it was “in the direction of” the larger degree 15min trend (next post), that had just reversed off DP resistance. My only concern was that the ABC pattern was not very “symmetrical”, the wave b swing was far too short in time to “look good”.

Most amateurs don’t understands that losses can and do happen, that is why we have stops in place and keep the loss small at just -1R. Again, this is all part of the Cyclical nature of Trading, and how we are now in the hard part of the cycle, after the massive profits mid last week. This is just how the markets and Profits and losses unfold in the “Real World” ......

Thanks, Steve