Wednesday 21 October 2009

Now for the Advanced Traders


OK, so far I have outlined a very hard day on the 3min YM with 5 straight -1R losses. But these are all sells, so was there anything that the Advanced Traders among you that may have helped avoid these losses.

First, knowing that we had had a few very good days before and that we are overdue for some losses (Cyclical Nature of Trading) should have made you cautious going into yesterday. Then looking at the 5min Chart and seeing that the low of the day was right at the Typical Wave C WPT should have also made you worry about taking short trades later in the day.

Agreed, I normally do not look at the 5min charts for the larger degree trend I normally use the 15min, But combine this good looking Wave C low (on the 5min) with the fact that we are overdue for some losses, would have made the Advanced Trader be very cautious and probably avoid any 3min sells as the YM rallied off the 5min Wave C low.

Yes, this is Advanced, and comes with experience, but this why I do not believe in totally automated trading as a PC would never be able to view markets as well and as a good and experienced trader.

Steve

Now the 3min Russell


But the 3min Russell did help soften the day with a nice +2.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) late in the day.

So add +2.7R to -5R (again this is worst case on the YM, the other e-minis were far better than this) and you get -2.3R down overall. Yes this was a loss, but then compare -2.3R to the +4.7R and +5R profits from just the day before........... This is why I keep on saying that successful trading is all about Risk control and keeping the losses small. Here, even with 5 straight -1R losses (which is hard), all these are cleared by just one +5R profitable trade from the day before.........

Amateurs do not understand this, that is why I teach “the good, the bad and the ugly” here on a daily basis to help you all become professional traders that understand that losses can unfold, even a string of 5 -1R losses, but they are still small in comparison to the huge profits on other days. And this is what makes money overall............... To become a successful professional trader you must learn to understand this and accept it.

Steve

A hard day


Hi Everybody,

As I keep on saying, I am one of the few Gurus and vendors that talk about the hard times, and as such I will choose the “worst” example to show today. Again, there are very few vendors that even ever mention losses, let alone show worst case examples. But you all need to know how the “real world” unfolds sometimes.

As you can see, the 3min YM had a hard day. With the 15min trend down the DP buy early in the day was break even, but then followed 5 -1R losses, which was a very hard day. Days like this do happen, but they are rare.

BUT, we did get a ray of hope later in the day on the 3min Russell, next post.

Steve


PS, but this should have been expected. You all know about the Cyclical Nature of Trading, so what is likely to happen after a run of very good and very profitable days. So a hard day yesterday should have come as no surprise.