Advanced Analysis – Part 3

Exactly, a strong Wave (3) type of rally................... And guess what, that is exactly what unfolded, with the YM reaching the Typical Wave (3) WPT where a high started to unfold.

The, result a nice +4.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

But the profit is not the whole story, what I still find amazing is how well MTPredictor nails these type of setups for you. As we have seen, MTP nailed the exact low of the day, then the exact Wave (1) high. Also we nailed the minor 5 wave rally off the low, then the minor abc pattern. Then the Wave 3 high at the Typical Wave (3) WPT................. I don’t know about you Guys, but I still find this absolutely amazing....

MTPredictor was initially designed for me to be able to uncover these kind of trades and this is why I take so much time showing you them. I just hope that enough of you take the time and make the effort to study and learn how to use MTPredictor to its full potential. When you do, I think you will be amazed at how brilliantly this stuff works......

Steve

Advanced Analysis – Part 2

Correct............... The “initial” rally off an important low would be considered a Wave (1), and should “ideally” sub divide into a lesser degree 5 wave pattern. As you can see, that is exactly what happened as found by the “minor” Elliott waves. So far MTPredictor has done a perfect job of nailing the low of the day, then the first high, and also the minor pattern of the rally.

So what should you anticipate next ? Exactly, a Wave (2) correction, that subdivides into an abc pattern.

And is exactly what unfolded, with the minor abc being found by the Elliott Wave module. Again, MTPredictor doing a brilliant job of nailing the Elliott Wave patterns for you...

The trade was long off the blue (buy) bar.................... But what was the target ? What should you anticipated after a Wave (2) low ?

Come on, you should all know this, as this is my “favourite trade” and the one I talk about more than any other :)

Steve

Advanced Analysis – Part 1

OK, now we have seen that the larger degree, 15min trend was up, you would have avoided the sells that appeared on the 3min charts.

But I want to take a closer look at a trade that shows the true power of MTPredictor, and quite frankly blew me away yesterday as it was unfolding, as MTP nailed the turns absolutely perfectly.

This is where MTPredictor stands head and shoulders above other software, in its ability to perform more advanced analysis like this. This is the type of analysis I do myself and why I designed MTPredictor in the first place.................. So I suggest you all pay attention :)

Here we can see how the 3min YM made a low at DP support. This actually nailed the very low of the day for you ! Then the YM rallied into the opposing DP perfectly and made a high. So far so good. But what should we all know about the “pattern” of an “initially rally” off a “important low” ?

Steve

Larger degree trend

Hi Everybody,

I do hope that you read my posts yesterday and the studied them carefully................. because we had exactly the same situation unfold in the US e-minis yesterday, so you would have all been “prepared in advance” for this. I don’t know of any other software company that provides such good and comprehensive education free for all their customers like this :)

OK, to review, as you can see, the 15min Charts (ES shown) made a low at DP support, this set the trend to up for the day. So, exactly in the same way as the DAX example below, you should have ignored any sell setups and have been looking for buy on the shorter term 3 and 5min Charts....

Steve

Larger degree trend – example 2

Now let’s look at the 3min Chart...........

Can you all see that because the 15min (larger degree trend) was UP, the TS1 sell on this 3min chart was “against” this up trend so should not have been taken.......... As you can see, this avoided an otherwise loss.

Sometimes knowing when “not” to take a trade is more important that taking a trade.....

Steve

PS, notice how the VSA spike, at DP support, nailed the actual low of the day for you !! Then how the Dax rallied into the opposing DP – absolutely perfect :)

Larger degree trend – example 1

Hi Everybody,

Here is a perfect example, of when you should NOT take an automatic setup.

As you can see, the 15min trend on the Dax this morning was UP from a DP low, into a DP high.................. So when the “larger degree” tend is up, what should you do if you get a short term (3 and 5min) automatic sell ?

Steve

Cyclical Nature of Trading

Hi Everybody.

Understanding how markets unfold in the “real world” is absolutely vital if you intend to become a professional trader. There are too many amateurs who just look at the markets for a few days and then “expect” to make big profits each and every day. This simply does not happen.

Yes, there will be easy times, when good trades are frequent and easy to spot, because the pattern is clear. And this is what most companies market on. BUT, then there are harder times, when the pattern is less clear. This is what most companies don’t tell you about. But times like this can and do happen. The trick is not to get frustrated and accept that losses will unfold, but you keep them small, and that there will be quiet times, when the pattern is unclear.

Knowing and (more importantly) accepting this is vital, because only then will you understand that when times are hard, you are getting closer (as the cycle moves round) to getting back to some big profitable trades again......

This is true for all markets and all time frames....

Thanks, Steve

DP and VSA nails ES low

For the more Advanced Traders among you................

Here you can see how the 3min ES made a perfect high volume (VSA) spike at DP support to nail the low of the day for you. The ES then made a 5-wave rally off the low, where a nice +1.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

Add this Profit to the other good trades yesterday and even though it was a tricky day on the larger degree trend, carful use of Position Sizing and risk control would have kept the losses small and allowed you to bank some much larger profits overall.....

Thanks

Steve

YM getting in on the act

The NQ was not the only market giving some nice short trade profits yesterday.

The 3min YM also had a nice short trade, into the low of the day for a nice +3.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Thanks

Steve

3min NQ trades

OK, now we know that the trend was down into early afternoon, we can see that there were three sells on the 3min NQ, Two losses and one a Profit. But this is where Position Sizing comes in. Even with more losses than Profit, you come out on top overall. This is why I keep on saying why it is so important to keep your losses small and Profits large.

This is the real key to successful trading – small losses and large Profits

Thanks

Steve

Tricky larger degree trend...

Hi Everybody,

As we all know, sometimes the pattern is not as obvious or clear as we all would like, and yesterday was a day like that. The larger degree trend was down until early afternoon when the NQ and TF (Russell Index) made lows at Wave 3 WPT levels. This then turned the larger degree trend to up for the rest of the day...........

Thanks

Steve

Advanced trade opportunities

Hi Everybody,

Today I would like to show you some more Advanced techniques that you can use to uncover additional setups with MTPredictor. For this I would like to look at the FTSE.

If you look at the chart you can see how the FTSE made an Important high just after the open. This was also at a 15min (larger degree) DP resistance. The FTSE then decline,. In Elliott Wave terms this is a Wave (1). Then a “corrective rally” unfolded into the Wave (2orB) WPT, where a red (sell bar) unfolded. This was the signal for a new short trade. As this is a Wave (2) high, because the larger degree trend was down, we “play for” a Wave (3) type decline.....

And this is exactly what unfolded.............. As the FTSE declined sharply to reach the Typical Wave 3 WPT where a nice +7R Profit was available (ignoring slippage and commission).

As you can see, MTPredictor has the tools that will allow you to uncover some great trade opportunities, if you take the time and make the effort to “learn” how to use them....

Thanks, Steve

Nails high and low of the day !

We have already seen how MTPredictor nailed the very low of the day on the 3min NQ.................. Well, see how the very high of the day on the 3min ES unfolded right at the minimum Wave 5 WPT using the Elliott Wave module...........

I think that is pretty amazing ............. nailing both the high and the low of the day on the US e-minis on Friday !

Thanks, Steve

Now for the Advanced Traders

As you all know, I do try and encourage you all to works and learn how to identify more advanced setups. Well, Friday was a good example of this, because on just the standard and automatic setups on the 3min you would have had two setups that you would have avoided, so a quiet day. BUT once you learn more advanced techniques, additional; trades become available to you.

If you look at the chart, the 3min NQ made a “minor ABC low with a reversal at the minimum Wave C WP and DP support. All of this on a high volume (VSA) bar. This nailed the low of the day for you !

The NQ then rallied into the opposing DP, when another high volume (VSA) bar unfolded. +4.6R Profit was available (ignoring slippage and commission) at this level.

As you can see, MTPredictor has the tools available for you to uncover some great trades, all you need is to take the time and make the effort to learn how to use them......

Thanks, Steve

3min Automatic setups

OK, now lets move down to the 3min charts to see any setups there.

As you can see, we did get a automatic sell in the morning (history triangle) and a TS4 buy in the afternoon. But both of these are against the 15min up trend in the morning and the 15mn down trend (after the 15min DP sell) in the afternoon, so should have been avoided......

Thanks

Steve

15min trend

Hi Everybody.

OK, let’s start with the larger degree trend on the 15min NQ. As you can see, it appears to be still making higher highs and higher lows, which is by definition an uptrend.

But, we did get a DP sell around midday on Friday, so this could be early warning of a high coming in, so switched the uptrend to down for the short term 3 and 5min charts in the afternoon on Friday.

Thanks

Steve

Don’t forget the 5min Charts

Hi Everybody,

I know that a number of you follow the 3min charts, but (as I have said before), please don’t forget the 5min chart, as these very often have good setups on as well. There is a tendency for some traders to drift to ever shorter and shorter time frames, when in reality, some of the bigger moves actually unfold on slightly longer time frame chart. The very short time frame is usually only noise so traders can get stopped out by a noise wiggle before the main trend really gets going. That is why the 5min charts can very often give you good trades.

Here is a great example, where the best trade yesterday was on the 5min NQ. As you can see, this caught the string rally in the afternoon for a nice +3.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)....

Thanks, Steve

Choppy day yesterday............

Hi Everybody,

It was a very choppy day yesterday on the ES. As you can see from the 3min chart io the right, the ES just made narrow and small swings yesterday.........

But it was nice to see that the tools in MTPredictor manage to nail virtually every high and low during the day for you :)

Thanks

Steve

3min Dax for +4.7R Profit

Hi Everybody,

The 3min Dax had a lovely TS1 long trade yesterday that, as you can see from the attached chart, retuned a nice +4.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) using the ATRStop (as the STF strength band was exceeded)........

Thanks

Steve

YM – a bit frustrating....

It was not all plain sailing yesterday.

While there was the Russell trade that was a nice one, there were also some losses, but (as usual) these were kept small at just -1R. For example on the 3min YM, there was a -1R loss just before the eventual low on the Russell.

Then there was the frustrating DP sell. Yes this nailed the high of the day, but the market just drifted sideways after the trade entry............

So, I just want to make sure that (in the spirit of fairness) that I do mention some small losses yesterday as well as a frustrating trade, alongside the good TF winner (last post).

Thanks, Steve

Russell Index (TF) – Part 2

As we have already seen, the 15min TF had made a Wave 2orB low, so the trend was up, and “ideally” up into the higher 15min DP. So when this TS1 buy came up on the 3min chart it was a good one to consider.......

AS all of you who follow this blog regularly, when we get a trade that looks like he has come off an “important high or low”, then it is “more likely” to be a Wave (2), so then we should anticipate a stronger Wave (3) type swing to follow. This was a food exempt, as the 3min Typical Wave 3 WPT was “in the same area” as the larger degree 15min DP target from the last post.

As you can see, the TF did indeed rally up to reach the Typical Wave 3 WPT, where a nice +7.5R Profit was available (ignoring slippage and commission)

Thanks, Steve

PS, Yes, this trade used WPT targets and not the standard STF, so should be considered an Advanced Trade. But I hope this is the type of trade that you all can learn to spot yourselves...

Russell Index (TF) – Part 1

Hi Everybody,

As there was quite a lot of activity yesterday, I only have time to look at one trade from yesterday on the e-minis, so let’s look at the Russell Index, starting with the larger degree trend.

As you can see, the 15min TF was making a Wave 2orB low, using the Elliott Wave module. This set the larger degree trend to be up, “ideally” into the higher DP target”.

So now let’s move down to the 3min chart to see if there were any long trades after this 15min Wave 2orB low.

Thanks, Steve

Larger degree trend – a question ?

One question I get asked a lot is how do we get “confirmation” from the larger degree trend when the 15min pattern has not “completed” when I get a 3 or 5min setup ? This is a good question, and does require a bit more analysis.

Fort this we have the “Elliott Wave” module in MTPredictor, where you can place the Elliott Wave on the chart. As you can see form the chart, this module also places the WPT levels on the chart for you. In this way you can see whether you are at WPT support or resistance “before” the 15min patterns completes. You can then make a decision on the 3 and 5min trade.

But I always suggest you come back to the 15min Charts to check that the pattern did indeed complete and as such have the extra confidence of the larger degree trend....

Thanks, Steve

DP sell nails the high of the day !

OK, now we know that sells where the trade to be looking for, you can see that we had a TS4 sell that resulted in a -1R loss. Yes losses can and do unfold. But this was then followed by a DP sell that nailed the high of the day !!

The YM then declined nicely, to reach the first projected profit target, where a nice +2.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

Please remember, there are three stages to the way markets unfold (natural Cyclical Nature of Trading), the good part (when we get the big profits), the bad time (when losses come through), and a quiet time (when we get small profits and some losses). We are still in the quiet time at the moment. There are too many amateurs who expect big profits every day, this simple does not happen in the “real world”. For more into please see this PDF

http://www.mtpredictor.com/support/documents/How%20Profits%20and%20loses%20unfold%20in%20the%20real%20world.pdf

Again, MTPredictor is one of the few software companies that give you “real” education on how markets “really” unfold.....

Thanks, Steve

15min TS1 sell on the YM 15min

Hi Everybody,

As usual, the larger degree trend first. Yesterday we had a TS1 sell on the 15min YM, that set the trend to down, so sells should have been taken.

So now let’s take a look at the 3min Charts for any valid trade setups

Thanks, Steve

3min DP sell on the ES

As we already have seen, early in the day the 15min trend was down, so the DP sell on the 3min ES early in the day was a good one to consider.

As you can see, this resulted in a nice +2.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) at the first target. So was a good trade.

But, and this is where most amateur traders go wrong, they see the market rally later and then assume that they were wrong, because they had not anticipated that this would happen. BUT (and this is so important to understand), our job as a trader is just to make money and not be “right”. Amateurs confuse the two. This was a good example because the rally was not anticipated, BUT when you look at the day as a whole you come away with a nice profits, and that should be your sole aim, to make money and not be right....

Thanks, Steve

15min trend

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was a good example of what happens when the larger degree trend does not pan out as originally anticipated......

Here we had a TS3 sell on the 15min ES early in the day, so that set the larger degree trend to down. But, the ES only declined slightly before reversing and then rallying to new highs.

So does this mean that our analysis was incorrect ? Let’s take a look at the 3min chart and see............................

Thanks, Steve

DP sell nails the high of the day !

OK, now we have seen that we should be looking for sell setups and (just as important) avoid any buy setups, this DP sell on the 3min NQ was a good one to consider. As you can see, this nailed the very high of the day for you !!

The NQ declined into the first projected profit target where the STF was strong. So standard trade management swapped to the ATRStop. This ran the trade a little further, for a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

As a PS here, if the ATRStop “swaps” side quickly and you are in a trade, then simply start to trail the stop 1 tick beyond the bars highs, this is what happened in this example.

So there we are, short from the high of the day for a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slip[page and commission), which is a good result, especially after having been quiet for the last few days. But then this is just the Cyclical Nature of Trading, and something I talk to you about regularly..

Thanks, Steve

As usual – larger degree trend first

Hi Everybody,

As usual, let’s look at the “larger degree trend” first to get the direction for the actual trade entries. As you can see, we had a TS2 sell on the 15min ES, we also had a TS3 sell on the 15min TF (not shown), so this set the trend to down.

As usual, we now move down to the shorter, 3 and 5min charts for the actual trade entries

Thanks

Steve

DP low on 15min NQ

Hi Everybody,

As I suggested last week, we are now in the hard / quiet part of the cycle (Cyclical Nature of Trading), so it is not surprising that things are quiet at the moment. BUT, as we have seen so many times before, it is not that we know that soon we will come back into the good (and profitable) part of the cycle when we will get a string of good and profitable trades. So it is now that all professional traders get more alert to setups, and amateur get bored. This is the difference between professional who understand that trades go in “cycles” and amateurs who have no understanding of how markets unfold in the “real world”

Notice how the 15min trend was down into the DP buy on the 15min NQ chart which then turned the larger degree trend up later in the day on Friday.

Thanks

Steve

3min DAX

Hi Everybody............

The European traders among you are having a good run at the moment, with another nice TS3 trade on the 3min chart.

As you can see, the DAX declined into the first projected profit target where a nice +4.5R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.....

Thanks

Steve

15min ES Chart

Hi Everybody............

Well, I did say that the ES had made a high at DP resistance and the 15min trend was now down, so yesterday’s sharp decline should have come as no surprise to anybody :)

This is the power of MTPredictor.............

Thanks

Steve

3min ES for the trades

OK, now we know that the larger degree, 15min, trend was down yesterday, I hope you can all see that the best opportunity on the 3min ES yesterday was the TS2 sell later morning. As you can see, this got you short before the ES declined into the low of day.

The result was a nice +2.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) as the ES reached the first projected profit target....

But, and this is the most important part, this profit was 2.8x larger than the -1R loss from yesterday, so even though we are in the hard part of the cycle at the moment the Profits are still larger than the loses. This the key to long term trading success, keeping your losses small and your profits large....

Thanks, Steve

Larger degree trend....

Hi Everybody

OK, as we saw yesterday the 15min ES was at DP resistance, that mean that you should have been on the lookout for sell setups.

With this in mind lets now move down to the 3min Chart...

Thanks, Steve

Perfect example of why Size matters.....

Hi Everybody,

Here is a perfect example of why I keep on stressing that it is not the “number” but the “size” of your winners than counts

3 trades here on the 3min DAX, 2 losses and 1 winner. BUT the winner is approx 4.4x larger than the losses, so even with 2 losses at just -1R each, you are up overall, because the 1 winner was much much bigger at +4.4R (ignoring slippage and commission).

In this Industry Size does matter :)

Small losses and Big profits (not the number) is the key to successful long term trading.............

Thanks, Steve

3min ES

As you can see, the 3min ES DP sell that was taken as OK as it was also at 15min DP resistance, but it resulted in a -1R loss.

It is amazing how many emails I get when a trader does all the analysis, and all seems OK, then a loss unfolds. They seem to think that they made a mistake, but this is not the case. You can do all the correct analysis and then a loss unfold. That is OK, because the loss is kept small. A -1R loss is far far far smaller than most of the profits MTP was making just a few days ago. Small losses and Big profits, that is what makes money over time.

There are just too many amateur traders who seem to think that they can analyze the market and be right 100% of the time. This is rubbish, no trader can do this. The reason we do analysis is to put the probabilities on our side, but yes, there will always be losses. But the tick is keeping them small.

Truly accepting this is probably the biggest hurdle most amateurs traders have to get by before they can become a successful professional.....

Thanks, Steve

15min ES

To show you what I mean let’s take a look at the ES yesterday, starting with the 15min larger degree trend.

As you can see the 15min ES was at DP resistance so it was OK to look for sell setups on the 3min chart later in the day.

Thanks, Steve

Cyclical Nature of Trading

Hi Everybody,

Before I start today’s posts I would like to remind you all of the post I made a few days ago on the Cyclical Nature of Trading. Some amateurs except that trading will be the same each day and as such will be easy. This is the rubbish that is banded round by the non trading software vendors who don’t have a clue about how the markets work in the real-world. In the real world there will be easy trades, but there will also be hard times when the trend is unclear and when losses do unfold. This is just a fact of trading life, and one that you must accept to become a successful professional trader.

That is why I alerted you a few days ago that we were probably overdue for a few harder days because we had just had a good run of huge profits. And guess what, this is exactly what is unfolding now, a few harder days...............

Thanks, Steve

Manual DP trade on the FTSE

Hi Everybody,

Here is a great example of what the more advanced and experienced traders among you can achieve with the software.

Here the 3min FTSE made the low of the day at DP support. Trade entry was as the high of the blue (buy) reversal bar was exceeded. The FTSE then rallied nicely and the trade was managed using the ATRStop.

The Result was a very nice +5.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), and shows you what you can achieve with the software once you move beyond just the standard and automatic routines. MTPredictor is so so much more !

Thanks, Steve

Cyclical Nature of Trading

Hi Everybody,

After such a good run of great profitable trades it was no surprise that we had a quieter day on Friday. In fact e have been over due for a quieter time for a few days now.... As you should all know, trading goes in cycles, where the good times (profitable trades) rotate round with quieter times and time when some small losses come round. This is just the natural way markets unfold in “real life”.

Well, now after a run of good days, we should anticipate a few harder days before the good trades come though again.

Being prepared for how markets unfold in real-life is essential if you are to become a successful professional trader....

Thanks, Steve