A perfect trade !

Hi Everybody,

Although the US e-minis have been having a slightly tricky time over the last few days, the European Traders among you have been having a ball. Just look at this TS1 short trade from just this morning. This nailed a high just before the Dax collapsed !

As the STF was strong as the first profit target was reached, the trade management swapped to the ATRStop. This held the short trade as the Dax continued to decline, the end result was a massive +11R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Absolutely amazing !!

Steve

PS, this was found using the new MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader 7

Position sizing – again !

Hi Everybody.

I hope you all carefully read yesterdays post, so first I have to ask – what did you all learn ?

I hope it was that it is the “size” of your Profits” that is important, and “not” the number. We had a Guy call in yesterday who simply could not understand that you don’t have to have a high number of winners to be profitable overall. So it was good that yesterday we had another good example, again on the 3min YM.

Here we had two losing short trades (-1R each), but it was then followed by a +4.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) on the TS4 buy later in the day. Meaning only 33% winners (1 out of 3) BUT (and this is the important point), because the Profit was much larger than the losses, money was made overall.................

I still find it amazing (and sad at the same time) that so many amateurs simply cannot understand that being successful in this business in NOT about a high % if winners. Having a high % of winners over time is hard, but it is not necessary to be successful

Thanks, and I do really hope that people start to understand this, Steve

Position Sizing – how amazing !

Hi Everybody,

For the Standard Traders among you, yesterday on the 3min YM was a brilliant example of why using Correct Position Sizing is so important. Here we had 4 automatic trades, of which 3 were loses. Yes, 3 losses and only 1 Profit. On the face of it, this looks horrible, but that is where most amateur traders makes their biggest mistake. They do not realize that using correct Position Sizing means that their losses are kept small and their Profits are large. So in this example we had 3 x -1R BUT (and this is the important point) the 1 Profit was +4R, meaning that money was made overall (+4R -3R = +1R Profit overall).

This is the point that so many amateur traders never seen to understand, it is not the number (or %) of winners to losses that is important, it is their size !

Thanks, Steve

PS, But take a look at the Advanced Blog, that is where yesterday became a brilliant day !

Cyclical Nature of Trading.

Hi Everybody,

Well, we have had a good run of profitable trades recently, so it was about time that we should have a few losses come though. This is just the Natural Cyclical Nature of Trading. And yesterday was a hard day on the US e-minis. Hard days do unfold when trading, any Guru who does not tell you this is lying, or not a trader themselves.

This is where it was good to be an Advanced Trader, where an appreciation of the "larger degree trend" would have helped, please see the Advanced posts.

Thanks, Steve

Another good day......

Hi Everybody,

Friday was a another good day for the US e-minis, with a nice TS2 sell early in the day on the 3min ES. The ES declined nicely to reach the first projected profit target, where Profit was taken, as the STF was weak. This resulted in a nice +3.5R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

AS the STF was read at the time of the sell, this was a nice straightforward trade at all MTPredictor users should have nailed.

The TS4 buy later in the day was “against” a red STF so should have been avoided.

I just wish that all days were as straight forward was this !

Thanks, Steve

3min ES Part 2

Here is a chart of the second TS4 sell that I talked about in the post before. As you can see, a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Thanks, Steve

3min ES

Hi Everybody,

After a few quiet days, we came back to a good day on the US e-minis yesterday. This is just the “Cyclical Nature of Trading”, that you all should know very well by now !

So let’s take a look at the 3min ES, which started with a sell early in the day, but this was “not valid” as it was against a blue STF (up trend). Then the ES decline into a TS4 buy, that was valid............. The ES then rallied into a TS3 Sell which was also valid (Black STF), this was a case for a “stop and reverse”, banking a small +0.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) along the way.

Then we have two “history triangles”, but only one -1R loss (as they were a “double top”). Sp here you were +0.9r up and -1R down, so very pretty much break-even, when a nice TS4 sell came in. This nailed the high before the markets started a sharp decline.

The result of this last sell was a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), making the day a good one overall..............

Thanks, Steve