European Traders having a Ball !

Hi Everybody,

Nice to see that the European Traders among you are having a great time................. As you can see, a lovely TS 3 buy has just unfolded on the 3min Dax. The result was a nice +6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) as the Dax rallied into the first Profit target !

This was a perfect trade and everything was standard, so it should have been caught by all the European Traders out there..............

The screen shot uses the new MTP RT add-ons for NinjaTrader 7

Thanks, Steve

Opposing signals ?

Hi Everybody,

A question I get a lot is how to handle an “opposing signals”. For example, you were short from the TS3 sell in the 3min YM, then a valid TS3 buy came up, what do you do ? Well, this is where an idea of the “larger degree trend” comes in. Normally I would suggest that the signal that is “with” the larger degree trend has preference. But, for those of you who have been following this Blog for a while, will know that the “day after” a big move can be choppy, with narrow ranges, so can just drift sideways, just like Friday !

So in day like this, “Stop and Reverse” at valid opposing signals is OK, but just be careful and keep stops close, as a horrible choppy day was expected.....

Thanks, Steve

Political uncertainty vs Trading Profits

Hi Everybody,

As we struggle to come to terms with the chaos that is unfolding in the UK here today with the election results not giving a clear winner, the FTSE has been giving MTPredictor users some nice profits.

As you can see, the TS3 buy that has just unfolded on the 3min FTSE rallied straight to the first projected profit target, where a +4.3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

So even when the Political landscape is uncertain in the UK, MTPredictor users are amassing yet more profits....

Thanks, Steve

Follow all markets

Hi Everybody,

I have said it before, you should follow all 4 US e-minis. This is because you can get a setup on one of them and not the others. A great example is yesterday, where the best trade unfolded on the 3min Russell Index (TF). As you can see, we got a lovely TS3 sell just before the sharp fall yesterday.

Yes, Standard Traders would have come out at the first target, as the STF was weak, but this still banked a very nice +4.2R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission). As I have been saying over the3 last few days, this profit is much larger than the losses (at -1R) and this is what makes a successful trader...

Thanks, Steve

PS, I know you are all looking to catch the whole fall that unfolded yesterday, so let’s take a look in the Advanced Blog.

The Cyclical Nature of Trading.

Hi Everybody,

My discussion of keeping the losses small over the last few days has been very timely because yesterday we had a hard day on the US e-minis. However, this should have been expected after the run of good trade recently, this is what I call the “Cyclical Nature of Trading”.

If we look at the 3min YM, we had a -1R loss early in the day, but it is the second sell (TS3) at 10:48EST that I want to take a closer look at. This is where common sense come it, and this is something that comes with experience, something that a purely “mechanical” trading system will never have and is why I am so against mechanical systems, because they can never have the “intuition” of a good Human Trader.

So here you are, on just over +2R Profit and you know that you have had a good run of good trades over the last few days, so you know you are “overdue” for some losses. So the “sensible” thing to do is protect this trade quicker so it is at least break-even. This is common sense trading.

The result is that the losses would been have kept to a minimum yesterday. And remember this comes only a day after a nice +5R day on the ES the day before...................... Small losses and Big Profits – are you starting to see how this is the key to a successful long term treading approach :)

Thanks, Steve

Small losses and Big Profits

Hi Everybody.

I hope you all read, and then took on board my post yesterday on why most amateur traders lose ? Well, yesterday carried on nicely, where we had 3 short trades on the 3min ES, 1 loss and 2 winners. But that is not important, what was important was that the Profits were much much larger than the losses. So even if tomorrow we have a few losses, these Big Profits will more than make up for a few losses. And this is the key to successful trading, small losses and Big Profits.

Yesterday the STF on the 3min ES was red, so Standard Traders would have avoided the buys and only taken the sell. The result was two good profitable trades and 1 loss. Please see the Chart. So a good day overall yesterday.

Thanks, Steve

Why most traders lose

Hi Everybody,

It is said that up to 97% of amateur traders fail in this business, so why is that ? Well, after over 20 years in this business, the reason is simple (as I see it all the time). It is because amateurs want to be “right” more than they want to make money.

In other words, most amateurs just look for a high winning % of trades and have no understanding that this is not possible over time. And (this is the bit they never get) is that to make money over time you actually don’t need to have a high % of winners. The attached chart on the 3min ES form Friday is a great example, 2 winners and two loses, but good Profit “overall”.

I see this again and again, day after day, and I feel sad that most amateurs simply are unwilling to listen to experience and “think” they know better. So it is a sad fact that 97% of amateurs will just go on losing, because they are unwilling to listen and accept that the key to successful trading is keeping the losses small and Profits larger and NOT simply having a high % of winners......

This is where MTPredictor will help as it provides discipline to keep the losses small, and techniques to maximise the winners...... The rest (as they say) is now up to you.

Thanks, Steve