Why most traders lose

Hi Everybody,

It is said that up to 97% of amateur traders fail in this business, so why is that ? Well, after over 20 years in this business, the reason is simple (as I see it all the time). It is because amateurs want to be “right” more than they want to make money.

In other words, most amateurs just look for a high winning % of trades and have no understanding that this is not possible over time. And (this is the bit they never get) is that to make money over time you actually don’t need to have a high % of winners. The attached chart on the 3min ES form Friday is a great example, 2 winners and two loses, but good Profit “overall”.

I see this again and again, day after day, and I feel sad that most amateurs simply are unwilling to listen to experience and “think” they know better. So it is a sad fact that 97% of amateurs will just go on losing, because they are unwilling to listen and accept that the key to successful trading is keeping the losses small and Profits larger and NOT simply having a high % of winners......

This is where MTPredictor will help as it provides discipline to keep the losses small, and techniques to maximise the winners...... The rest (as they say) is now up to you.

Thanks, Steve

Always look at all 4 e-minis

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was a great example of why I always suggest to look at all 4 of the US e-minis. As I suspected the trades were quiet yesterday (after a good few days), but there was a nice TS2 buy (that was “in line with” a blue STF) on the 3min Russell Index.

As you can see, this resulted in a nice +3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission). But the point is that would have missed this nice trade if you only follow the ES of just one of the other e-minis. This is why I always suggest following all 4 of them.

We are going into a long holiday weekend here in the UK, so may I wish you all a good holiday and I will be back next Tuesday.

Thanks

Steve

YM as well

The 5min YM got in on the act as well, with a small Profit towards the end of the day. Making yesterday another good day overall

OK, we have had two very good days now, and I never like giving bad news, but after a period of good trades we should always keep in mind the “Cyclical Nature of Trading”. And just after a quiet period or some small loss we would expect some good trades to come though (which just have), likewise, after a period of good trades, we should be preparing for the hard part of the cycle to come round again............

This is just the Natural way markets unfold, but because so few vendors are Traders themselves, you well very rarely hear about this because most vendors simple do not know or understand how markets unfold in the Real World.

So we should, be thankful for the good Profits, but now is not the time to get complacent........

Thanks, Steve

Another good day

Hi Everybody,

Well, the Profits continue to come in, with a lovely +4.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) on the 5min ES yesterday. Yes, this followed buy a -1R loss, but this loss was a lot smaller than the profit, and as you all should know by now, this is the key to long term trading success – keeping the losses small and Profits large.

That was not all, the YM came in on the act later in the day as well, next post

Thanks, Steve

What an Amazing Day !

Hi Everybody,

Well, I hope you all caught this one.................... As you can see, the 5min ES gave a TS1 sell, that not only nailed the high of the day for you, but also had you short as a sharp collapse unfolded. After the discussions on different signals yesterday, I have include the NinjaTrader 7 add-ons here to show how this TS1 sell was found using the RT add-ons.

The ES declined sharply, without exceeded the prior Bars high’s. As the decline continued, Standard Traders could have used the ATRStop for trade management. The result was a massive +6.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

What a brilliant trade !

Steve

STF Colour

Hi Everybody,

I do get asked sometimes about how to use the STF “colour”. Well, for the “Standard trader” we only consider trades that are “with” the STF colour, i.e. Blue (or Black) for a buy and red (or black) for a sell. It does not matter whether the STF is above or below the 0 line, we only use its colour.

The 3min YM yesterday was a good example................ Here the first two sell setups were not valid as they were “against” a blue STF. But the TS4 sell later in the day was when the STF was Black (neutral) so was OK to take.

The result was a nice +4.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) as the YM continued its decline into the close.

Note: The trade management swapped to the ATRStop when the STF was strong (beyond its strength band) as the YM short reached its first Profit target....

Thanks, Steve

PS, this was found using the full MTPredictor v6.5, see the Advanced Blog for the RT add-ons.

Small losses and Big Profits

Hi Everybody,

The 3min YM on Friday was a perfect example of why I teach that it is so important to keep your losses small. Here we had two long trades (as the STF was blue), the first was a loss, the second was a Profit. But that is not the important thing. What is important is that the loss was kept small at just -1R, and the Profit was much larger than this at +2.9R )ignoring slippage and commission). So over all, you came out with +1.9R Profit (+2.9R less -1R).....

This is why it is so important that losses are kept small and Profits large, this is what makes you money over time.....

Thanks