3min NQ

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was a slightly harder day, with a couple of losses on the 3min NQ. Yes, it is important to talk about losses as they can and do happen.....

As you can see, that two -1R losses were valid as they were on a black STF. The two DP sells later in the day were “against” the blue STF so should have been ignored..... But the TS4 sell early in the day is one that I will talk about on the Advanced Blog.

Thanks

Steve

A great day on the US e-minis

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was a brilliant day on the US e-minis with some lovely buy setups that were all in the direction of the blue STF. So yesterday was a “no brainier” !

A you can see, the two buys on the 3min ES both turned our well with +2.9 and +2.1R Profits (ignoring slippage and commission). Then we did have a -1R loss later in the day but -1R was a lot smaller than the +5R Profits from the two earlier trades. Small losses and Big profits, that is the key to successful trading.

Both Profits were taken at the first project target as the STF was weak both times.............. The only question some people have is whether to simply take profits at the target or to then start to “trail” the stop 1 tick below the bars lows. The differences is discussed in Part 2 of the Trading Course

But either way, yesterday was a very good day on the US eminis, with Profits on all 4 of the ES, YM, NQ and Russell !

Thanks, Steve

PS, remember to check out the Advanced Blog for that litle bit extra on the trades

Perfect example of a Standard setup

Hi Everybody,

Here is an absolutely perfect example of the Standard setups and standard trade management guidelines in action.

If you look at this 3min Dax chart you can see that we had a TS2 sell earlier in the day that resulted in a -1R loss (triangle on the chart). This was followed by another TS2 sell, and because this short was so far in Profit, stops should have been at least at break-even, if not slightly in Profit.

Then we had some potential buy setups unfold................ But the STF was red, so these were ignored. Then we got another TS3 sell this time that nailed the high before the Dax declined sharply. Notice how this was still with the red STF direction.... The STF was weak (less than the strength band) so Profit was banked at the first profit target – The result a nice +5.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

But do you see how the STF has kept us in the main down trend, and helped avoid the weaker buy setup. Even when a loss was made it was kept small, much smaller than the +5.9 Profit, meaning money was made overall. No second guessing, all was under control and managed carefully, all the way....

Thanks, Steve

3min YM

Yesterday was a quiet day with only a few setups, for example there were no automatic setups on the 3min ES, and only 2 on the 3min YM

As you can see, the first TS2 buy was with the STF colour so resulted in a -1R loss. The second was against the STF colour so should have been avoided............

Thanks

Steve

PS, but the Advanced Traders would have had some good trades..... please see http://elliott-wave-trader.blogspot.com/

Standard trade setups vs. Advanced Analysis

Hi Everybody,

A number of you have emailed in saying that my Advanced Analysis has been confusing you as you are new to the software and have found it hard to see how it relates to the Standard trade setups and guidelines...... I do understand, and I must admit this is my fault as I do love sharing more Advanced Analysis to show you all what MTPredictor is really capable of.........

So wheat I have decided to do is to keep the examples on this Blog more in line with the Standard trade setups and guidelines. But then I will start a new Blog that is dedicated exclusively for my Advanced Analysis. In this way you can choose to follow which Blog you feel most comfortable with.....

I hope this allows you to all feel more comfortable with what you are seeing here on this blog. But I do hope that you sneak a peek at the Advanced Blog, as that is where MTPredictor really starts to come into its own with the Advanced Analysis. I think you will all be blown away with what the software can do once you become more experienced

Thanks

Steve

Yes, losses can happen... Part 2

OK, onto if we look at the 5min NQ chart, we can see a very good looking TS3 sell, that did start to decline nicely. However, it reversed and rallied, which was against our anticipation.... As the trade was so far into profit initially, stops should have been at break-even so at least this should have only been a break-even trade.

But then almost immediately we got another sell. But this one resulted in a 1-R loss. So, yes, overall this would have been a losing day.

Yes losses can and do happen, this is what I talk about with the Cyclical Nature of Trading, the good news is that soon the cycle will come round to some profitable trades. Our job is while we are in the losing part of the cycle is to keep the losses small...

Thanks, Steve

Yes, losses can happen...

Hi Everybody,

Something that many amateur traders cannot understand is why a loss can unfold, when everything appears to fall into place perfectly (?). Well, welcome to the real-world, that is why trading is called “speculation” as all we are doing is speculating on a probable future outcome. And probabilities are never 100%. So yes, losses can and do unfold, anybody who tells you otherwise is not a professional trader......

Here is a good example: where yesterday the 15min YM looked to be setting up for a TS1 sell, so we “assumed at the time” that the larger degree trend was down, so were on the lookout for shorter-term sell setups.

OK, onto the 5min NQ chart.

Thanks, Steve