TS3 sell on the 3min NQ

This was the trade that was tricky yesterday, because it was such a good looking ABC pattern, “but” the larger degree trend looked to be up. So as I always say in circumstances like this, if you are unsure, then pass on the trade, but if you are experienced and like the pattern, then go for it, but protect yourself quicker using the 100% initial risk guideline.

This worked out OK with a potential +3.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) available as the NQ reached the first projected profit target.

But I agree, not an easy choice on this one....

Steve

15min NQ

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was not as easy “at the time” as it may seem “in hindsight”. I know this as I was pondering the larger degree trend as the market was unfolding yesterday.

Initially I suspected that the 15min NQ had put in a potential Wave C low, which meant the larger degree trend was up. But the 3min then gave a lovely 3min TS3 sell (next post) so we had a dilemma.

Later in the day, things became easier as the NQ (and TF) made another attempt at a Wave C low, that is why the 3min TF long on the VSA setup (post later) was the easier trade yesterday.

So overall, tricky in the morning, but easier later in the day.....

Steve

One for the European Traders...

Hi Everybody,

A nice TS4 buy (using IQFeed data) this morning on the 3min FTSE. Notice how the DP target nailed the high perfectly. Standard Traders among you would have swapped to the ATRStop as the STF strength band was exceeded. This gave a nice +3.3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

Notice how the loss earlier was kept small. -1R is a lot less than the +3.3R made on the Profit, small losses and large Profits, that is the key to successful trading.......

Thanks, Steve

3min YM

OK, let’s now look at the 3min Chart.

The first trade of the day was not filled because the YM rallied and exceeded the high “before” taking out the buy order, so no trade. Then there was a legitimate buy that resulted in a -1R loss. Yes losses can and do happen, but as we all know by now, the trick is keeping them small, which is what we did here.

Then the question comes as a DP sell arrived later in the day. Yes this was in line with the 15min DP so was a valid one to take. But the difficulty came as a TS4 buy appeared a little later. Should you ignore, or stop and reverse or what ?

This was a difficult decision, because, yes, the 15min was at DP resistance, but that was only minor. So the best course of action would have been for the standard traders among you to just protect the profit as the TS4 buy came in. But the more advanced traders among you could have stopped and reversed for another +2R on the way back up again.

But before you all email in, this was not an easy call as the DP high was only minor resistance on the 15min chart.....And that is all that unfolded – a minor decline from that high.

Thanks, Steve

15min YM

Hi Everybody,

OK, as usual, let’s set the “larger degree trend” using the 15min Chart, today on the YM.

As you can see, we had a TS3 buy early in the day, so this set the larger degree trend to up. But the question comes later in the day when the YM reaches the DP (from the minor wave b high). As I teach in the Trading Course, a “minor” high can be made there, but it is usually only a minor high. So this does raise a question on the 3min chart that we will see in the next post....

Thanks, Steve

3min DP sell nails high of day !

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was an interesting day, with the markets working their way high for most of the day, until a DP sell arrive on the 3min YM at 14:45 EST. As you all know, I am always cautious about DP setup, as they must be in tune with the larger degree trend, i.e. at “larger degree” support or resistance. As you have see from the last post, the 15min YM was right at the Typical Wave 3 WPT, so a decline was likely, as such this 3min DP sell was a good one to consider.

As you can see, this nailed the very high of the day for you !!

The YM then declined nicely. As the STF strength band was exceeded the ATRStop was used for trade management (standard trade management guidelines). The result was a nice +3.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

A nice start to the week :-)

Steve

Larger degree trend on 15min YM

Hi Everybody,

As always, let’s start with the larger degree trend. Nothing much was happening on the 15min Charts, until the 15min YM reached the Typical Wave 3 WPT. Normally I don’t like taking tares off the Wave 3 WPT as these are “counter trend”, but on the “shorter term charts, a move was likely from this level. As such we can now move down to the 3min Chart to see if any setups were unfolding at this time.....

I have also include some other support / resistance zones on this 15min Chart, and as you can see, these have done a brilliant job, nailing the last few highs and lows absolutely perfectly. I still find it amazing how well this stuff works sometimes !

Thanks

Steve