15min YM

Hi Everybody,

Before you read this post, please cast your eyes down and read the post below. There I show that “ideally” the 15min YM should continue up into the DP (off the prior Wave 4 high), which I had on my Chart yesterday, well, guess what ? This is exactly what unfolded yesterday !!

As you can see form the chart today, the YM rallied up into the DP then made a high before declining sharply. In other words, it unfolded exactly as I was anticipating in my post yesterday, i.e. reaching the DP level, a level that was on the chart a whole day “in advance”. This is the power of the MTP levels and show how important it is to keep a good eye on them in your own trading............

Thanks

Steve

15min YM

As you can see, the 15min YM made a low at the minimum Wave 5 WPT, so any further downside movement as unlikely, in fact a rally to the DP (form the prior wave 4 high) was “more likely”. So any 3 and 5min sells were “against” the new 15min up trend.

For newer and less experienced traders, and especially when we know we are in the harder part of the trading cycle any trades that “against” the larger degree trend should be avoided. For the more experienced trader, they can use the 100% initial risk level to protect trades earlier. Either way, any sells yesterday were against the new 15min up trend off the Wave 5 low, so caution should have been used.

I agree, the rally off the lows was very strained, as the markets just drifted sideways yesterday. But then this was to be expected because of the position of the trading cycle we are currently in.

Many new traders find this difficult to understand, they seem to “expect” markets to unfold perfectly every day, this simply does not happen in the real world. Trading is not easy, it requires patience and discipline and has days (like yesterday) that are frustrating. The sooner you learn to deal with days like this the sooner you can make the jump to becoming a professional trader....

Thanks

Steve

3min YM

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was another hard day, with the markets just chopping sideways in narrow ranges. But then this should have come as no surprise after my comments yesterday – we are in the hard part of the cycle (Cyclical Nature of Trading) so you should all be prepared for a few harder days. This is just the natural way profits and losses unfold.

I did got a question yesterday on whether we could have avoided (or at least limited) the sells that did appear yesterday, for example on the 3min YM.

As you all know by now, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the “larger degree trend” to see how the 3 and 5min signal “fit in” with the 15min chart. So onto the next post.......

Thanks

Steve

The Cyclical nature of trading..........

Yep, you have guessed it, after the last few days, that have been absolutely brilliant, with some absolutely massive profits, it looks like it is now time for the cycle to turn and put us into the harder part of the cycle where we get a few small losses and some quieter times. We have all seen this many times before, so this should have come as no surprise to any of you !

This was reflected in the 3min ES which was a hard day and then gave us a losing TS4 sell, just before the market declined ! This is frustrating, but this is how trading unfolds sometimes in the real world.........

Losses can and do happen, it is your job as a professional trader to keep them small at just -1R. If you do this, then the profits (during the good parts of the cycle) will more than make up for these. This is what makes you money over time. Keeping the losses small and the profits large.

I hope this Blog is helping show you all how the markets unfold in the Real World, so you are all prepared and know what is happening on a daily basis.

Thanks, Steve

3min YM – TS3 sell later in the day

For the Standard Traders among you....

I know not all of you are Advanced Traders, so let’s take a look at the 3min YM that gave a Standard TS3 sell signal on the 13:36EST bar, which was filled on the 13:42EST bar.

The YM then declined into the first projected profit target nicely where the trade would have been stopped out for a very nice +4.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), using the stranded trade management guidelines.

So this was a perfect standard trade setup using the standard trade management guidelines...

Thanks, Steve

5min YM – TS1 sell Part 2

For the Advanced Traders among you....

For those of you who are using the full MTP v6.0 (via the timed updates) will have seen that the decline on the 5min YM unfolded as a very good looking 5-wave sequence. The Elliott Wave module in V6.0 not only found the wave 5 low, but also projected the WPT levels where the wave 5 was likely to end.

So what would have the sensible course of action been as the YM entered the Typical Wave 5 WPT “and” you were sitting on over +8R Profit on your current TS1 short trade................... ?

Exactly, start to protect the profit by trailing your stop just above the bar’s highs. This then banked profits for you at the low of the day !

As you can see, MTP has the tools available for you to make these informed decisions. All you have to do is take the time, do the study to understands the Trading Course and how Elliott Wave patterns can and do unfold in the markets.

Thanks, Steve

5min YM – TS1 sell

Hi Everybody,

Wow, what a brilliant day on Friday. In fact there were so many good setups on the US e-minis on Friday that I don’t have time or space to look at them all here, so I will focus on just one, a TS1 sell on the 5min YM.

If you look at the chart, you can see how the 5min YM gave a nice TYS1 sell at 11:05EST on Friday. You should all have been ready for this one as it was almost identical to the TS1 sell I outlined in great detail just a few days ago on the ES.

The YM started to decline nicely, exceeding the STF strength band, so the standard trade management guidelines say to swap to the ATRStop. This would have held you short as the decline continued.

BUT in this post I would like to show you how you could have come out at the low of the day for a nice +8.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission). For this lets look to the next post for why you would have protected profits at the low....

Thanks Steve