Russell Index (TF) – Part 2

As we have already seen, the 15min TF had made a Wave 2orB low, so the trend was up, and “ideally” up into the higher 15min DP. So when this TS1 buy came up on the 3min chart it was a good one to consider.......

AS all of you who follow this blog regularly, when we get a trade that looks like he has come off an “important high or low”, then it is “more likely” to be a Wave (2), so then we should anticipate a stronger Wave (3) type swing to follow. This was a food exempt, as the 3min Typical Wave 3 WPT was “in the same area” as the larger degree 15min DP target from the last post.

As you can see, the TF did indeed rally up to reach the Typical Wave 3 WPT, where a nice +7.5R Profit was available (ignoring slippage and commission)

Thanks, Steve

PS, Yes, this trade used WPT targets and not the standard STF, so should be considered an Advanced Trade. But I hope this is the type of trade that you all can learn to spot yourselves...

Russell Index (TF) – Part 1

Hi Everybody,

As there was quite a lot of activity yesterday, I only have time to look at one trade from yesterday on the e-minis, so let’s look at the Russell Index, starting with the larger degree trend.

As you can see, the 15min TF was making a Wave 2orB low, using the Elliott Wave module. This set the larger degree trend to be up, “ideally” into the higher DP target”.

So now let’s move down to the 3min chart to see if there were any long trades after this 15min Wave 2orB low.

Thanks, Steve

Larger degree trend – a question ?

One question I get asked a lot is how do we get “confirmation” from the larger degree trend when the 15min pattern has not “completed” when I get a 3 or 5min setup ? This is a good question, and does require a bit more analysis.

Fort this we have the “Elliott Wave” module in MTPredictor, where you can place the Elliott Wave on the chart. As you can see form the chart, this module also places the WPT levels on the chart for you. In this way you can see whether you are at WPT support or resistance “before” the 15min patterns completes. You can then make a decision on the 3 and 5min trade.

But I always suggest you come back to the 15min Charts to check that the pattern did indeed complete and as such have the extra confidence of the larger degree trend....

Thanks, Steve

DP sell nails the high of the day !

OK, now we know that sells where the trade to be looking for, you can see that we had a TS4 sell that resulted in a -1R loss. Yes losses can and do unfold. But this was then followed by a DP sell that nailed the high of the day !!

The YM then declined nicely, to reach the first projected profit target, where a nice +2.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

Please remember, there are three stages to the way markets unfold (natural Cyclical Nature of Trading), the good part (when we get the big profits), the bad time (when losses come through), and a quiet time (when we get small profits and some losses). We are still in the quiet time at the moment. There are too many amateurs who expect big profits every day, this simple does not happen in the “real world”. For more into please see this PDF

http://www.mtpredictor.com/support/documents/How%20Profits%20and%20loses%20unfold%20in%20the%20real%20world.pdf

Again, MTPredictor is one of the few software companies that give you “real” education on how markets “really” unfold.....

Thanks, Steve

15min TS1 sell on the YM 15min

Hi Everybody,

As usual, the larger degree trend first. Yesterday we had a TS1 sell on the 15min YM, that set the trend to down, so sells should have been taken.

So now let’s take a look at the 3min Charts for any valid trade setups

Thanks, Steve

3min DP sell on the ES

As we already have seen, early in the day the 15min trend was down, so the DP sell on the 3min ES early in the day was a good one to consider.

As you can see, this resulted in a nice +2.8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) at the first target. So was a good trade.

But, and this is where most amateur traders go wrong, they see the market rally later and then assume that they were wrong, because they had not anticipated that this would happen. BUT (and this is so important to understand), our job as a trader is just to make money and not be “right”. Amateurs confuse the two. This was a good example because the rally was not anticipated, BUT when you look at the day as a whole you come away with a nice profits, and that should be your sole aim, to make money and not be right....

Thanks, Steve

15min trend

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was a good example of what happens when the larger degree trend does not pan out as originally anticipated......

Here we had a TS3 sell on the 15min ES early in the day, so that set the larger degree trend to down. But, the ES only declined slightly before reversing and then rallying to new highs.

So does this mean that our analysis was incorrect ? Let’s take a look at the 3min chart and see............................

Thanks, Steve