VSA – High Volume Spikes

Hi Everybody

I just wanted to remind you that MTPredictor is not just automatic setups based on the TS1,2,3 and 4 routines. For those of you who study the Trading Course will know that we teach other setups, for example a very nice High Volume Spike (VSA) setup that when combined with a reversal at DP support or resistance can highlight very nice trades for you.

A great example has just unfolded on the 3min DAX, as you can see this nailed the high perfectly, before a sharp fall right into the lower DP support zone where +3.9R Profit was available (ignoring slippage and commission).

As you can see, for the experienced and Advanced Trader, MTPredictor has to tools to identify some very nice tradable opportunities.......

Thanks, Steve

Elliott Wave - my Isolation Approach

Hi Everybody,

In my Advanced Customer Training webinar tomorrow I will be talking about some of the other Elliott Wave patterns we look at in MTPredictor. In particular the Wave 5. Please remember that the way I do Elliott wave (my unique isolation approach) is unique and different to the more traditional Elliott Wave analysis as taught by the standard books. So I will take a look at the difference and why I developed and use Elliott Wave in the way that I do.

A good example has recently unfolded on a UK share – BP, where the Wave 5 high unfolded right at the Typical Wave 5 WPT, which was followed by a decline into the DP from the prior wave 4. Which is exactly as taught in the MTPredictor Trading Course

Thanks

Steve

ES – 3min DP

Hi Everybody,

The US e-minis started well yesterday with a nice DP buy shortly after the open on the 3min ES. This nailed the low of the day for you. The ES then rallied nicely. As the STF strength band was exceed we swap to the ATRStop for trade management. This held the long trade for a nice +4R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

After that, the markets went flat so the rest of the day was tricky and hard work. But we all know by know that markets can do this, so we should not worry about tricky times as we know they will usually not last long before some good trades come round again.

Thanks

Steve

French CAC40 – TS3 long, the result

Hi Everybody,

Here is the result of that TS3 long trade – a nice +8R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

This was managed using the standard guidelines of switching to the ATRStop once the STF strength band had been exceeded

Thanks

Steve

PS, just after this long trade was stopped out, we got another TS3 buy, that result in +4.9R Profit, so it has been a very good day on the CAC today :-)

French CAC40 – TS3 long

Hi Everybody,

One for the European traders here...............

Earlier this morning the CAC40 (French Stock market) gave a TS3 buy set-up. But what I also liked about this was that this was also on one of our high volume spike’s (VSA). This gave added weight to the trade.

So let’s see how this unfolds......

Thanks

Steve

FOREX – GBP 60min Chart

But this comes on the back of a nice TS4 buy we had a while ago. As you can see this made a nice profit of approx. +3.9R (ignoring slippage and commission) as profit was taken at the latest TS4 sell setup

Thanks

Steve

FOREX – GBP 60min Chart

Hi Everybody,

I was asked a question on a GBPUSD 60min chart and what to do when there is no clear trend on the larger degree chart (240 and 480 min in this case) ?

Well, when the larger degree chart is either flat (as in this case) or the trend is not clear you can play both sides of the market, but be a little more cautious. In other words look to bring your protective stop closer to the market quicker than normal. This usually means the 100% initial risk level.

In this case, the3 latest TS4 sell would have been stopped out for break-even.

Thanks

Steve

NQ DP Buy

Hi Everybody,

As I said below, there were so many good trades yesterday it has been hard deciding which one to talk about today. The one that interested me the most was the DP buy on the 3min NQ. The reason I liked this was that it came just after the open so was also one of our “Gap Open” plays as well.

The STF strength band was quickly exceeded so the trade management swapped to the ATRStop, which held the long as the rally continued, eventually stopping out the trade for a nice +6.5R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)....

But do you all see what has happened here, we had a few hard and quieter days earlier in the week, but now we have come back to some brilliant and massive Profits. This came on the back of some massive profitable days last week. This is just the natural Cyclical nature of the markets. We all need the patience and discipline to sit though the hard days, because the good days will come round. So I hope me talking about this day after day, and showing you the cycle day after day has helped you understand how markets really unfold in the Real World !

Thanks, Steve

15min DAX long

I know we mainly look at 3 and 5min Chart and use the 15min for the longer time frames analysis, but I just want to remind you that you can still get some nice trades on the 15min Charts itself.

Here is a great example on the 15min DAX form just yesterday. As you can see, this nailed the low beautifully before the DAX rallied strongly. It has just reached the project profit target (as the STF is weak) where a profit of approx +8R (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

As I said yesterday, there were just so many good trades yesterday I am finding it hard which once to tell you about in today’s Blog entries.....

Thanks, Steve

3min FTSE – TS3 sell

Hi Everybody.

Wow, where do I start, Thursday was an absolutely amazing day with profits on so many markets I simply do not have time to cover them all here. But seriously, this is yet again a perfect example of the Cyclical Nature of the markets, because after a quiet start to the week, we now have some brilliant profits coming though.

I would like to start with a perfect TS3 sell on the 3min FTSE, for the European traders among you. There is little for me to add to the chart as this was a standard TS3 trade setup that was managed using the standard trade management guidelines (ATRStop was used as the STF strength band was exceeded).

The result, a very nice +4.4R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

This was using the standard trade management guidelines. The Advanced Traders among you could have come out at the low for nearer +6R Profit as the 15min DAX was putting in a very nice ABC low (next post). But even +4.4R Profit using the standard guidelines is a very nice Profit

Thanks, Steve

15min YM

Hi Everybody,

Before you read this post, please cast your eyes down and read the post below. There I show that “ideally” the 15min YM should continue up into the DP (off the prior Wave 4 high), which I had on my Chart yesterday, well, guess what ? This is exactly what unfolded yesterday !!

As you can see form the chart today, the YM rallied up into the DP then made a high before declining sharply. In other words, it unfolded exactly as I was anticipating in my post yesterday, i.e. reaching the DP level, a level that was on the chart a whole day “in advance”. This is the power of the MTP levels and show how important it is to keep a good eye on them in your own trading............

Thanks

Steve

15min YM

As you can see, the 15min YM made a low at the minimum Wave 5 WPT, so any further downside movement as unlikely, in fact a rally to the DP (form the prior wave 4 high) was “more likely”. So any 3 and 5min sells were “against” the new 15min up trend.

For newer and less experienced traders, and especially when we know we are in the harder part of the trading cycle any trades that “against” the larger degree trend should be avoided. For the more experienced trader, they can use the 100% initial risk level to protect trades earlier. Either way, any sells yesterday were against the new 15min up trend off the Wave 5 low, so caution should have been used.

I agree, the rally off the lows was very strained, as the markets just drifted sideways yesterday. But then this was to be expected because of the position of the trading cycle we are currently in.

Many new traders find this difficult to understand, they seem to “expect” markets to unfold perfectly every day, this simply does not happen in the real world. Trading is not easy, it requires patience and discipline and has days (like yesterday) that are frustrating. The sooner you learn to deal with days like this the sooner you can make the jump to becoming a professional trader....

Thanks

Steve

3min YM

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday was another hard day, with the markets just chopping sideways in narrow ranges. But then this should have come as no surprise after my comments yesterday – we are in the hard part of the cycle (Cyclical Nature of Trading) so you should all be prepared for a few harder days. This is just the natural way profits and losses unfold.

I did got a question yesterday on whether we could have avoided (or at least limited) the sells that did appear yesterday, for example on the 3min YM.

As you all know by now, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the “larger degree trend” to see how the 3 and 5min signal “fit in” with the 15min chart. So onto the next post.......

Thanks

Steve

The Cyclical nature of trading..........

Yep, you have guessed it, after the last few days, that have been absolutely brilliant, with some absolutely massive profits, it looks like it is now time for the cycle to turn and put us into the harder part of the cycle where we get a few small losses and some quieter times. We have all seen this many times before, so this should have come as no surprise to any of you !

This was reflected in the 3min ES which was a hard day and then gave us a losing TS4 sell, just before the market declined ! This is frustrating, but this is how trading unfolds sometimes in the real world.........

Losses can and do happen, it is your job as a professional trader to keep them small at just -1R. If you do this, then the profits (during the good parts of the cycle) will more than make up for these. This is what makes you money over time. Keeping the losses small and the profits large.

I hope this Blog is helping show you all how the markets unfold in the Real World, so you are all prepared and know what is happening on a daily basis.

Thanks, Steve

3min YM – TS3 sell later in the day

For the Standard Traders among you....

I know not all of you are Advanced Traders, so let’s take a look at the 3min YM that gave a Standard TS3 sell signal on the 13:36EST bar, which was filled on the 13:42EST bar.

The YM then declined into the first projected profit target nicely where the trade would have been stopped out for a very nice +4.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), using the stranded trade management guidelines.

So this was a perfect standard trade setup using the standard trade management guidelines...

Thanks, Steve

5min YM – TS1 sell Part 2

For the Advanced Traders among you....

For those of you who are using the full MTP v6.0 (via the timed updates) will have seen that the decline on the 5min YM unfolded as a very good looking 5-wave sequence. The Elliott Wave module in V6.0 not only found the wave 5 low, but also projected the WPT levels where the wave 5 was likely to end.

So what would have the sensible course of action been as the YM entered the Typical Wave 5 WPT “and” you were sitting on over +8R Profit on your current TS1 short trade................... ?

Exactly, start to protect the profit by trailing your stop just above the bar’s highs. This then banked profits for you at the low of the day !

As you can see, MTP has the tools available for you to make these informed decisions. All you have to do is take the time, do the study to understands the Trading Course and how Elliott Wave patterns can and do unfold in the markets.

Thanks, Steve

5min YM – TS1 sell

Hi Everybody,

Wow, what a brilliant day on Friday. In fact there were so many good setups on the US e-minis on Friday that I don’t have time or space to look at them all here, so I will focus on just one, a TS1 sell on the 5min YM.

If you look at the chart, you can see how the 5min YM gave a nice TYS1 sell at 11:05EST on Friday. You should all have been ready for this one as it was almost identical to the TS1 sell I outlined in great detail just a few days ago on the ES.

The YM started to decline nicely, exceeding the STF strength band, so the standard trade management guidelines say to swap to the ATRStop. This would have held you short as the decline continued.

BUT in this post I would like to show you how you could have come out at the low of the day for a nice +8.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission). For this lets look to the next post for why you would have protected profits at the low....

Thanks Steve

3min NQ - VSA setup

OK, here is one for the Advanced Traders among you

At 11:45 EST the 3min NQ made a high volume reversal (VSA) signal. The Advanced Traders among you would have spotted that the NQ was both at DP support and on Stochastic divergence. Both signs for a potential low. All that was needed was a blue, buy, reversal bar. This unfolded the very next bar.

This nailed the low. The 3min NQ then rallied in a Elliott Wave 1,2,3 wave pattern, so tightening stops as the Typical Wave 3 WPT was reached would have been a good idea...........

As you can see, even in a quiet day, there are normally setups for the more experienced and Advanced Traders among you, those of you who have spent the time to learn and study the MTPredictor trading course....

Thanks, Steve

3min ES

Hi Everybody,

After a couple of brilliant (and very profitable) days it was no surprise to have a quieter day on the 3min ES. As you can see from the chart there was little going on. This is where the patience and discipline is required.

Having said that, the DP’s did nail most of the main turns during the day for you

Thanks

Steve

One for the European Traders....

Hi Everybody,

Here is a great trade on the FTSE 3min, to show that the European Traders among you are also having some nice trades....

A standard TS3 buy setups, that went to the first profit target. As the STF was weak, the WPT target was used (standard trade management guidelines). This resulted in a nice +7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

All in all a perfect and completely standard trade setup

Thanks

Steve

3min YM Part 3

OK, now let’s take a look at the DP sell at 13:45EST. As you can see this was also a very good looking 5 wave sequence, with the high unfolding at the Typical Wave 5 WPT. As such this made the DP sell a good one to consider, so time to stop and reverse again.....

This turned out to be the high of the day (!), with the YM declining nicely into the opposing DP target for a nice +4.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

What a day, 4 automatic trades, -1R, +3.6R,+3.6R and +4.6R for a +10R (approx) day overall............

As we have seen, not all days are as good as this, but as we have been following the cyclical nature of trading, day by day, can you all how see how a good run of days, was then followed by some harder days, where some small losses unfolded, which was then followed by some massive profits again. This is how trading unfolds in the real world. Do not expect to make profits every day, have the patience discipline and knowledge to expect good times, then harder and quieter times before the good times come round again.....

Steve

3min YM Part 2

OK, now you are long off the TS2 buy at 12:54EST................ The YM rallies nicely bit then a DP sell unfolds at 13:45EST. As you all know, I don’t like DP’s unless they are at larger degree support/resistance or they are at the end of a good looking Wave 5.

Well, as we will see in the next post, this DP sell was also a perfect Wave 5 high, so time to stop and reverse again, banking another nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Steve

3min YM Part 1

Hi Everybody.

Wow, isn’t the cyclical nature of trading absolutely amazing. After a few hard days we have now had another brilliant day on the US e-minis. Today I would like to take a look at just one market – the 3min YM as it gave us some amazing setups yesterday.

Let’s start with a TS4 sell, that gave a -1R loss at 12:09EST (yes losses can and do happen, but the trick is keeping them small). This was followed by another TS4 sell at 12:24EST. This one declined nicely until a TS2 buy unfolded at 12:54EST, so time to “stop and reverse”. This banked a nice +3.6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

So far so good............

Steve

RT add-ons vs. MTP v6.0

Hi Everybody,

I know that sometimes it can be confusing when we have RT add-ons that can give slightly different results to the full MTP v6.0. The reason for this is that the RT add-ons are just a “cut down” product that contain automatic setups. Whereas the full MTP v6.0 has all the tools and modules for a more complete analysis.

We have found that the people who buy the full MTP v6.0 are more willing to take the time and make the effort to learn and study how to get more form the software by understand the reasons and the logic “behind” the MTP setups. So the full MTP v6.0 is a more professional program for the professional trader who is dedicated to learning to become the best he/she can. That is why I spend so much time “teaching” more advanced techniques.

But the RT add-ons are more designed for the trader who just wants automatic setups and has no desire to learn or take themselves to higher levels as traders.

I hope that most of you will want to become better traders by “learning” the setups behind MTP, and that is why I am putting so much effort (and money) into the new upcoming Real-time (MTP V6.5) version of MTPredictor, so the serious and professional traders among you can have all the advanced tools and modules available to you in a fully real-time product.

Thanks, Steve

3min ES TS1 sell Part 2

OK, let’s roll back the chart (using the chart replay mode) to take a more detailed look at this setup, as it is my favourite setup.

As you can see, we have a 3-swing (ABC) correction coming after an “initial decline” off an “prior high”. In other words in Elliott Wave terms this should be considered a Wave (2) correction. As I have mentioned before – what comes after a Wave (2) ? Exactly a strong Wave (3) type swing. This is why this is my favourite setup because very often we get a strong move of this setup.

As you can see, the only question was whether the Wave (2), TS1 setup should, be considered as it made a “double top” with the prior high. So is a double top still a correction ? In the early days of MTP I used to say No, that is why the RT add-ons need a correction to be “less than” the prior high. But I have amended this in V6.0 to say it can be “less than or equal to”, as I have found than many times a good move can come off a double top / bottom. This is what we have in this example.

Either way, this still fulfils the general concept behind the TS1 setup in that we have a important top that is followed by an initial, decline, that is then followed by a 3-swing, abc, correction. As I say, this is my favourite trade setup and one that I am always on the lookout for.

Thanks, Steve

PS, I will also take a good look at this setup in my customer Advanced trading webinar later today (MTP customers only)

3min ES TS1 sell

Hi Everybody

Today I would like to take a close look at a TS1 sell on the 3min ES yesterday. The reason I want to take a good look is that we have amended the code in MTP v6.0 to take account of double tops and bottoms, which we don’t have in the RT add-ons, so this TS1 sell was found in MTP v6.0 but not in the RT add-ons, so I want to explore it in detail to show you the logic behind it.

First, let’s look at the completed trade. As per the standard trade management guidelines, the ATRStop was used as the STF strength band was exceeded. The trade was then stopped out for a very nice +7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

Yes, there would have been a -1R loss just before the trade got going, but as you can see, this +7R profit more than made up for the small -1R loss first

OK, now let’s look at the logic behind the TS1 setup in more detail in my next post

Thanks, Steve

PS, I will also take a good look at this setup in my customer Advanced trading webinar later today (MTP customers only)

3min FTSE – Wave 5 high

Hi Everybody,

Here is one for the Advanced Traders among you.

The 3min FTSE just made a good looking 5-wave rally (off the prior TS4, ABC, low) with the high reversing right at the Typical Wave 5 WPT. There was also Stochastic divergence.

As you should all know, the initial target off a complete Wave 5 is the DP from the prior Wave (4) swing. Well, the FTSE declined straight into this zone where +4.7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) was available.

Again, this is for the Advanced Traders among you, but does show what some of the more advanced features in the software can do

Thanks, Steve

YM 3min

As you can see from the chart, yesterday was another horrible day where the market just moved sideways in a narrow range.

There was a TS3 sell later in the day, but as we were at 15min DP support this should have been avoided by all but the Advanced Traders among you. Then (if you did take it) as it was against the 15min DP, stops should have been brought to break-even quickly..

But either way, yesterday was another hard day, which is what we were expecting.....

Thanks, Steve

YM 15min

Hi Everybody,

As I anticipated in yesterday’s post, it was another hard day yesterday on the US e-minis, but then this is just to be expected because of the cyclical nature of trading.....

Having said that, just take a look at the YM 15min Chart, and where yesterday’s decline stopped – right at our DP support

So, knowing that we were at 15min DP support and in the hard part of the trading cycle, what should you have been looking for on the 3min Charts ?

Thanks, Steve

FOREX – EURUSD short Part 2

OK, but what of the “larger degree” trend I hear you all ask.

Well, if you look at the 4hr Chart you can see how the 1Hr DP sell was actually unfolding “at the same time” as a TS3 sell on the 4hr chart. So this gave added weight that a high was unfolding and as such it was Ok to consider the 1hr short.....

Thanks

Steve

FOREX – EURUSD short

Hi Everybody

Here is a great “manual” DP sell on a 1hr (60min) EURUSD chart. As you can see the short was entered as the markets reversed off the DP level with a red (sell) reversal bar. The target was the “opposing” DP level.

The EUR has just reached this level where this short trade would have been stopped out for a nice +4.3R Profit

BUT, what of the STF strength band I hear you all ask ? Exactly, the above sentence was actually a little “test” to see how many of you were paying attention. Exactly, as the STF strength band has been exceeded, the stop is now trailed just above the ATRStop.

Thanks

Steve

The Cyclical Nature of Trading...

Hi Everybody,

Well last week was a perfect example of the cyclical nature of trading, where we had a few hard days at the end of the prior week, then the first part of last week was brilliant with 3/4 days of good (and large) profits that was then followed by a much harder day on Friday. This is how the markets work in real-life, so should any of you been surprised that Friday was a hard day ? No, because it came after a few good, and very profitable days.

If you look at the 3min Charts on Friday you can see they were horrible, with most of the day being range bound in narrow and choppy swings. These days are very very hard to trade. But this is where armatures complain and say that the markets are impossible But then they do not understand that this comes on the back of a few brilliant days. This is what trading is all about, so as you all know about the cyclical nature of trading now, you should have have been anticipating a harder day so it should have some as no surprise.....

On days like this it is best to either look to bank profits quickly or at the very lease get your protective stop to break-even quicker. Either way, they are hard days to trade.

I would not be at all surprised to see a few more hard days, before the cycle gets back into the good and profitable part, maybe later this week.

Thanks, Steve

The true power of MTPredictor

Hi everybody,.

I have saved the best for last today, and this shows the true power of the modules and routines in MTPredictor. This is for the Advanced Traders among you who have taken the time and made the effort to learn about Elliott Wave and learn all of the techniques I teach and then taken the time to be able to put them all together as and when the ideal pattern unfolds.

Yes this does involve a “manual” EW count and “manual” use of the WPT module, but nailing the exact high of the day for +9R Profit is what MTP can do. But only for those of you who take the time, make the effort to study and learn. I will not kid you, this does take time and effort, but this is the reward. It is just a pity that so few traders nowadays are willing to work hard, most want a “quick fix” for little or no effort. That is why spectacular trades like this will remain for the few professionals who take years to study an learn. Being a good trader is a full time profession, and professions take time (years) to learn, practice and then become good.............

Thanks

Steve

5 min Russell

Hi everybody,.

It was not all doom and gloom yesterday there were some nice trades, for example this TS3 buy on the 5min Russell that went to the DP nicely. Notice how I have used the high volume spike to protect profits on this long trade. The Advanced Traders among you will have also know some other markets (15min ES) were entering larger degree resistance zones, so protecting profits would have been a sensible course of action.

Again, this is where the markets are different on different days because we have had a few good days so you should know that a few harder days are approaching, so getting more aggressive with protecting profits is a good idea. A PC or automated strategy could never have this level of understanding

Thanks

Steve

Trading – the real world

I know a lot of the new traders among you struggle with this and I think the main reason is that there is so much miss information banded about on the Internet by companies who are not real traders. So most amateurs simply do not understand how markets unfold in the real world.

Bottom line, trading is hard. Not because of the techniques we have to learn (these are relatively easy), but it is the psychological toll that learning to trade takes out on us. The markets are no liner, they are driven by emotion, hope fear and greed. These emotions cannot be quantified and put into boxes by mathematical formulas. This is why computers struggle so much and why most so called “strategys and mechanical systems” do not work in the real –world, because the markets are forever changing.

So what hope is there for us ?

What we have to keep in mind, is why we trade, the make money and NOT to predict (or even understand) or try and control the markets. To do this we must keep the losses small and profits large,. It is as simple as that. Too many amateurs try and “understand” and rationalize” the markets in an effort to put them into a psychological structure that we as human beings can understand. But this will never work, because, as already said, markets are based on emotion, and not logic.

So we have to learn how to operate in a non linear environment where the rules can change under us. This is the true challenge of becoming a good trader, learning how to deal with uncertainties and thinking in probabilities and not 100% certain rules. I guess that is why 97% of amateurs traders never make it and end up losing.

This is why I spend so much time and effort in helping you all understands how the real world works, at least then you have a basis to move forward and learn.

Thanks

Steve

ES – larger degree trend part 2

OK, let’s move down to the 3min ES chart. And on the surface it was an easier day where the TS4 buy early in the day was up “in the direction” of the 15min Chart as it was rallying into the 15min DP so was a good one to take.

But the question comes on the two trades that unfolded “after” the 15min Chart had hit the DP and started to reverse. These were now “against” the new 15min down trend. So what should you do.

On the surface the easier thing is to just pass on these. BUT for the Advanced Traders among you, you can consider taking them but just moving your stop to break-even quicker, for example, using the 100% initial risk level. This protects you quicker and in this example would have avoided two losing trades with two break-even trades.

The 100% initial risk level is a good one to use when the pattern is less clear. For example on the nice TS3 sell on Wednesday in the 3min ES. Again, it makes sense to protect yourself quicker when the larger degree pattern is against you or (more often) is less than clear.

Thanks

Steve

ES – larger degree trend

Hi Everybody

Today I would like to have another look at how to use the larger degree trend, as I know this an area many of you struggle with.

But before I start I want to stress again that trading is not the same each day, some days the picture can be clear, and the decisions are easier, but other days the picture can be confusing and the decisions harder. This is what makes learning to become a good trader hard. I think this is what most amateurs find hard in that you have to accept that sometimes you can do the same thing on 2 days and have different outcomes, The markets are not logical, they are driven by emotions, so do not operate by our normal 2+2=4 set of rules. So learning to operate in a no-linear environment where the rules can change is part of the challenge of becoming a good trader.....

Anyway, let’s start with a look at the 15min ES yesterday, as you can see, this was a nice clear day with the 15min ES going up into the DP then reversing nicely.

So yesterday was easy, the 15min trend was up into the DP then down after it............ so how does that reflect trade decisions on the 3 and 5min charts

Thanks

Steve

3min ES – TS3 sell

OK, now onto a perfect (and standard) TS3 sell that unfolded later in the day.

As you can see, this nailed the end of the Wave C correction just before a continued decline. The STF strength band was exceeded so we swap to the ATR Stop. The result was a nice +5.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

As this was a standard and automatic setup with the standard trade management guidelines, all MTPredictor users should have caught this one :-)

Thanks

Steve

3min ES – Gap Open play

Hi Everybody,

Wow, the good trades just keep on coming. But seriously, this is a direct response of the cyclical nature of trading and because we had such a few hard days at the end of last week. The cycle has now turned and we are in the 3rd straight good day on the US e-minis.

I would like start today with one for the Advanced Traders among you, and was call I made in my Sales Webinar yesterday. This was a “Gap open” play. I have shown this before, where we look for a reversal at the DP just after a gap open. The target is then the opposing DP level.

As you can see, the ES behaved perfectly gapping up into the DP, then reversing, entering a new short trade, then promptly falling into the opposing DP for a nice +3.3R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission) – perfect, especially as this was called “at the time” in my webinar.

Thanks

Steve

5min ES part 2

OK, now for the icing on the cake for the Advanced Traders among you.

In the last post we saw how profits were taken at the first projected profit target, however, when we look at the Elliott Wave pattern of the rally during the TS3 long trade, we can see how this unfolded as a 5-wave advance. With the high right at the maximum Wave 5 WPT, this was another reason for the Advanced Traders among you to just bank profits MIT. Because not only were you at the normal TS3 profit target but at the maximum area where a wave 5 was likely to end. So no wonder a high was made there.

This nailed the high of the day for you perfectly.

Thanks

Steve

5min ES again

Hi Everybody,

Now do you all see why I stress the cyclical nature of trading so much ? After a few bad days last week, this week has been brilliant with +9R Profit on the 5min ES on Monday and now another brilliant trade for +3.7R Profit yesterday, again, on the 5min ES. This is what all amateurs traders must know, learn and then understand, trading goes in cycles, there will be quiet and bad times, but these will then be followed by the good and profitable times. We are seeing this yet again in the last few days...

Anyway, back to the nice TS3 buy on the 5min ES yesterday, As you can see form the chart to the right, this had you long from the low of the day. The ES then rallied to make the first projected profit target where +3.7R Profit was available. This was the high of the day. Long form the low of the day, the bank profits at the high of the day – that is a day traders dream

Thanks

Steve

5min ES – DP buy Part 2

OK, I know, I have said that I don’t like DP setup unless they are at larger degree DP support/resistance. However there is one exception, and that is when the DP comes at the end of a clear clean 5-wave swing.

This is exactly what happened in this example, please see the chart to the right, where you can see the Elliott Wave module in MTPredictor found a 5 wave decline. Notice how the low was also at the minimum Wave 5 WPT. We also had STF and Stochastic divergence at the low as well.

This is what made this DP buy a good one to consider as it was also at the end of a good looking 5-wave sequence and was supported by good divergences.

Thanks, Steve

5min ES – DP buy

Hi Everybody

Isn’t the cyclical nature of trading amazing ! I said yesterday that we were now overdue for a good day on the US e-minis and then pops up a +9R Profit, amazing ! Seriously though, this is why the newer traders among you need to know about the cyclical nature of trading so you do not get down during the quiets times, otherwise you will miss great trades like this one....................

So let’s take a look at the 5min ES chart. As you can see, this automatic DP buy nailed the very bar of the low, long form the low of the day is always nice for a day trader ! Then, the ES rallied straight though the initial profit target to reach the next DP level. This is where experience comes in...........What is the common sense thing to do if you are at DP resistance and the end of the day is approaching and you are sitting on +9R Profit. Bank it, or use the ATRStop which does not have a lot of time to run and is only on +5.6R Profit ? Personally, +9R Profit is huge and should be protected ( at least some of it, if not all of it) especially as the end of the day is approaching.

Again, this is where experience come in and a good trader will always win out over a purely mechanical approach, this is the reason I put so much effort into these posts to teach you how to handle situations like these. Either way, the 5min ES yesterday as a very nice profit

Thanks, Steve

Back now...........

Hi Everybody,

It is good to be back, and looking at the charts over the latter part of last week it looks I did not miss much. Quite frankly, the markets have been horrible over the last few days.

Having said that, there have been a few nice trades over the last few days, like the TS3 buy on Thursday in the Russell Index that made +6R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission. But overall, it has been a very hard few days.

As we all know, this is due to the cyclical nature of trading that we all should start to becoming familiar with now. Which means after a few hard days we are defiantly overdue for a few good days very soon now. Many new traders find times like this hard, because they simply do not understand that trading can be hard and frustrating at times. So “welcome to the real-world”, trading does go though cycles and yes it is hard sometimes .........

Thanks

Steve

Hi Everybody,

Sorry there have been no Blog updates in the last few days but I am feeling unwell, so I will come back to the blog once I start feeling better

Thanks

Steve

FTSE 3min chart - question

Wow, this FTSE has been an excellent educational example today, with some perfect setups earlier, but now I ask you this question, see chart – “Should you consider TS3 sells on the 3min Chart, when the 15min Chart is UP off the Wave 5 low” ?

I hope you all know the answer to this one already :-)

Exactly – the answer would be no, as they would be against the larger degree 15min chart

Wow, what a brilliant series of education posts on the FTSE today. I hope you have all learnt from them

Thanks, Steve

FTSE 3min – follow up

Amazing ............

That is exactly what unfolded on this 15min Chart..................... A Wave (4) rally, that was then followed by a Wave (5) declined that made a low right at the Typical Wave 5 WPT – amazing :-)

Thanks

Steve

FTSE 3min – follow up

OK, what of the 15min Chart I hear you all say, how did this TS3 buy, on the 3min chart “fit in” with the larger degree 15min Chart?

Let’s take a look. As you can see, we are coming off WPT support for the end of a Wave (3) low, so we should anticipated some kind of Wave (4) type rally. But even if this does not unfold, some kind of rally off this 15min low should be anticipated.

So, yes the TS3 buy on the 3min chart was “in the direction of” the larger degree 15min chart

Thanks

Steve

FTSE 3min

Hi Everybody

Well, we did not have to wait too long for a good trade to come along. Here is a perfect example of my favourite trade, and is exactly the same as I was looking at in the Daily GBP only yesterday.

Yes, because this TS3 buy was against a red STF, it should be considered an Advanced Trade, but I do look for this setup regularly, mainly because the R/R is so good, because we are aiming for the Typical Wave 3 WPT, and not the nearer Wave C WPT’s

Although this trade did not quite reach the anticipated target (Typical Wave 3 WPT) is was stopped out with a very nice +5.9R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission), so was a good trade anyway

That is the Cyclical Nature of Trading :-)

Thanks

Steve

The Cyclical Nature of Trading

Hi Everybody,

The last few days have been very hard in the US e-minis with few setups as the market pushed higher with little or no reaction down. When a market does this, it does not give us a chance to enter on any ABC (3-swing) correction. But this is all right, because we had a good few days before this, so this is just the natural cyclical nature of trading, where we are now in the quiet period.

All professional traders know, and accept, that trading goes in cycles, where the good (profitable) times are followed by quieter times where a few small losses can unfold, before the good (and profitable) times come round again. It is only the Amateur (who does not understand how the markets really unfold) that demands the market give them money every day. This is simple not how the markets unfold in the “real world”.

This is why I will have to keep on reminding you all about the Cyclical Nature of Trading, and remind you all that there will be quiet days. But this is good, because after a few quit days, we should anticipate that a few good, and profitable days, should come around. Remember all professional traders must have the patience and discipline to succeed.

So let’s see how the next few days unfold

Thanks, Steve

FOREX – GBPUSD Daily Chart

Hi Everybody

For the Advanced Traders.........

I wanted to take a closer look at a daily Chart of the GBPUSD, as this is a very good example of when to look to the Wave 3 WPT’s for targets rather than the closer Wave C WPT’s.

As outlined in the Trading Course, this is my favourite setup because the ABC (TS3) setups comes as the “first correction” from the “first move” off an “important high or low”. In other words, this is more likely to be a Wave (2) in Elliott Wave terms. And what usually follows a Wave (2) – exactly, a strong Wave (3) type swing. As you can see, this is exactly what we have with the GBP.

As the STF strength band was exceeded as the Typical Wave 3 WPT was reached, the ATRStop can be used to carry on the strong trend.

Currently sitting on +10R Open Profit (ignoring slippage and commission)

Thanks, Steve

FTSE 3min TS1 sell – follow up

Hi Everybody,

Here is how this TS1 short trade ended up – a very nice +7R Profit (ignoring slippage and commission).

What was interesting for me, was how the low came in at our Typical Wave 3 WPT, which is what we would normally anticipate as a TS1 sell is usually a Wave (2) correction, so seeing a Wave (3) unfold after this is normal.

So even though we used the ATRStop, the end result (in Profit terms) was about the same as just using the Typical Wave 3 WPT target

Thanks

Steve